La Liga delivers a real thriller this Sunday, the two most likely candidates to have a chance to steal the fourth place from Athletico Bilbao are facing each other in what could be called a do-or-die match. Real Betis have displayed a brilliant form of late, climbing to the sixth place in table, holding the same number of points as fifth-placed Villarreal. To make the excitement even bigger, as mentioned, both sides are only six points away from the much desired the Champions League seats. Being so far into the season, winning this one is more or less a must in order to stay in the race against Athletic Bilbao. That back-drop could mean two things, a tight game with both sides going heavily into defensive mode, or a match with wild attacks swinging over the pitch. Since a draw probably won’t bring any of the teams closer to a Champions League seat, my guess goes to the latter.
Comparing form curves, Real Betis definitely has an upper hand compared to the opponents. Five wins and one draw over the last six matches while Villareal only can boost two wins for the same period. While form curve is one good indicator, a deeper look into players and squads available is even more important.
This part of the pre-match, pre-prediction research gives an even stronger positive edge to Real Betis. The ever so important playmaker Isco is returning from a suspension, and the coach can in principle use the same strong squad that has deliver the five consecutive wins in the last rounds.
The outlook for Villareal is far less positive with Pepe, Albiol and Akhomach missing the game due to injury problems. And on top of that Gueye is suspended following a red card against Athletic in the last round.
Conclusion. These two teams have a history of sharing wins quite evenly between them over the last few years so there are no historical mental advantages given to either of them. Considering form curves and squad situations, I have quite a strong gut feeling that Real Betis will collect the hugely desired 3 points tonight. And as a draw is not an option, there will be no surrender until the final whistle blows. To me this read as a high likelihood that there will be goals delivered from both sides. My bet goes to Real Betis to win and over 2,5 goals.
