As we are now moving the third round of the Australian Open, competition of course gets tougher by the day. Once again, we have a chance to enjoy two of the title favourites as they face new opponents on Rod Laver’s courts. Along with everybody’s expectations, Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz made it through the latest round without too much hardship. Naturally both are expected to pass the third round as well, and most likely they will. But there are some watchouts.
Carlos Alcaraz has not given his opponents much space in the first two rounds of the tournament. Both matches won in three straight sets and only 12 games lost in total (5 against Nishioka and 7 against Schevchenko) so far. Impressive and something that tells us where Alcaraz has put his mind. There is definitely nothing wrong with the young Spaniards self-confidence – and putting a firm end to the games quickly – preserving energy for what’s to come might also prove beneficial further on.
Now Alcaraz is facing Portuguese Nuno Borges, a player that shouldn’t and won’t be a serious threat to him advancing to Day 4. But even though Borges will not be able to defeat Alcaraz, he just might cause more problems and cost more games than in the first two rounds. Borges has been playing very good and expedited home player Jordan Thompson effectively in the last round.
So, once again we look at number of games in the match. Many of the sportsbooks has already picked up on this and looked beyond Alcaraz impressive start of the tournament to keep odds down. But I still think the return on Over 28,5 games qualifies for a bet.
Novak Djokovic continuous to grind down opponents, just as we are used to. But Day 3 gives him a much harder opponent to deal with. While many might consider Tomas Machac more of a double’s player, he is not in any way a weak singles performer either.
Djokovic should and will win the match, but in what way is hard to say. While competitors such as Alcaraz finish their games fast and efficiently, Djokovic has been more generous to his opponents. In the first two rounds Djokovic has needed 8 sets and 74 games to win, compared to Alcaraz’ 48 games that is quite a difference. Although he is a really physical and strong player, Djokovic knows that it wouldn’t hurt to save more energy for coming rounds, not least given that most of his fiercest competitors are more than 10 years younger than himself.
Machac will fight the Serbian giant good and hard, no doubt and this is a hard match to predict in more detail. That’s when you analyse the odds in a bit more detail to find good value. Time for Djokovic to be a bit more effective and I think he will manage to win the game in Under 36,5 games which gives a real tempting return.
BORGES VS ALCARAZ
1.64
TOTAL GAMES - OVER 28.5
DJOKOVIC VS MACHAC
1.95
TOTAL GAMES - UNDER 36.5