New day, new matches – and of course new opportunities to collect value. The Friday matches followed our thoughts and hopefully a few of you made some money from the recommendations. Saturday holds a little bit more challenges. In one of the games, Sinner vs Giron it is mostly a question of how fast the Italian will discard the American. In the other, we need to figure out what Holger Rune’s form curve really looks like.
By all accounts, Jannik Sinner seems to have the tennis gods on his side in Australia, just like last year. In the third round he is facing one the weaker remaining opponent still in the tournament, the American player Marcos Giron.
I can’t really see anything that speaks for Sinner having any difficulties at all in winning this match. The question is really more how effective and fast he will be in putting an end to the game. So, that means taking a deeper look into how few games that are needed.
I think we can quite confidently state that this will be a match holding three sets only. That means 18 games to Sinner, and I think letting Giron have three games per set is quite generous. If then put an extra game in the hands of the American just to be on the safe side, we find ourselves facing a game with 28 games. If you feel wild, go for that. But, to be even more on the safe side I will go for “Under 29,5” games which still holds good value.
The Danish youngster Holger Rune has made a name of himself in the last 18 months, by many expected to quickly establish himself as of the brightest stars on the tennis tour. But so far, we haven’t seen to much star quality from him here in Melbourne. Rune has been struggling to fight off much weaker opponents and now it is time to step up the game.
On the other side of the net, Rune will find Miomir Kecmanovic who in turn has shown an increasing quality here in Australia. In the game against higher ranking Hurkacz, the Serb was on fire and expedited his opponent easily in three straight sets. This game has the potential to deliver the first real shocker of the tournament.
I still think Rune will win, as long as he takes his game to where it should be. But I think it will be quite a battle, and it will most likely take quite a number of games to conclude. I think the point where you find best value weighted against risk is at “Over 38,5” games.
