The knock-out stage continues with the second round of the quarter finals of the Champions League kicking off tonight. At Villa Park, Aston Villa has the tough challenge to turn the two-goal defeat against PSG into an equal or bigger win tonight to have a chance to stay in the competition. Definitely not an easy task. But, of course nothing is impossible and an early goal for Villa will definitely the home crowd on fire – and maybe, just maybe rattle the nerves of the Paris team who among their owns are already set for the semi-finals. This is exactly the type of game where I stay out of predicting the final outcome. Basically, with PSG arguably being the stronger team, this more or less only depends on which game strategy the Pariisians have brought to the game in Birmingham.
In terms of line-ups for tonight, a rare situation so far in to the seasons, both teams have more or less their entire squads available for the coaches to pick their favoured starting elevens from. Aston Villa will be missing Malen and potentially Bailey who has been reported doubtful. PSG has Marquinhos back and with him the PSG squad is intact. So, the backdrop for this clash is then made clear. No clear advantages obtained through injures or suspensions for any side. A massive and loud support for Aston Villa, with the club’s fans being closer to a massive European success than maybe ever before. But again, the scene is so very much dependant on which strategy PSG has decided to go for. And even if we had that knowledge available to us, a quick goal in any direction would complete turn the table any way.
So where does this leave us in the search for good betting value? All the usual suspects, outcome, half with most goals, number of goals, goal margins etc., are at least to me just too hard to predict. But there is one golden egg left to explore. Aston Villa will not stop at anything to make the miracle happen and send PSG out of the competition. That in combination with a loud home crowd and “all to win, nothing to lose” will mean a tough match and Villa players being very to close to the edge.
Conclusion. I believe there is very good value to collect by exploring odds for number of cards given to the home team. Home player entering the field pumped to the max will definitely play it tough and one or more than one occasion too tough. Weighing value against risk, I go for Over 2,5 cards given to Aston Villa. I would even be prepared to say more than 3,5 cards. But let’s play it safe and go for the lower number.
