The first semi-final delivered an upper hand to PSG who managed to leave Emirates Stadium with three points after a narrow win with one goal. Still an open race between the two awaiting the next game in Paris. Being one goal behind is not a showstopper for Arsenal. But, let’s now focus on the next battle of giants, FC Barcelona facing Inter Milan tonight in Barcelona. Ahead of the game, this also has the outlook of a tight game with an outcome hard to predict. What we have to work with is two really strong teams with solid experience from winning important games and collecting trophies. Barcelona has an edge in terms of attacking capability, while Inter Milan has proven their ability to defend their own goal with excellence.
While most betting companies hold Barcelona as a clear favourite, I am not convinced enough about that to accept the low values given on a Barcelona win. I will look the other way and go for a somewhat riskier solution.
The history between the teams doesn’t provide us with any clear idea on any of them holding a psychological advantage over the other, a head-2-head comparison just firms the notion of equal status. What we can see in the history is that when these teams face each other is that the matches are very tight and rarely there is a clear win for either side. The only item that stands out a little bit when looking at recent stats is that while Barcelona continues to produce a lot of goals, Inter Milan have had a bit of a set-back in their impressive streak of conceding very few goals. In the last five games Inter have gone from an 0,2 average to 1,6. Quite a big change and potentially an indication of a negative trend.
Digging deeper to find further clues, squad news is of course a very important indicator. Here we find some decimations on both sides. For Barcelona, Bernal, Casado and Lewandowski are definitely out due to injuries and Balde remains in doubt because of problems with his hamstrings. Inter only reports one confirmed injury, Pavard who will not be available and at the same time Thuram is still doubtful for an appearance tonight. To me, the team most negatively affected by injuries is then Barcelona even if a player like Thuram obviously holds great importance for any team.
But, with the only thing speaking against my prediction is Inter Milan’s recent streak of less effective defensive play, I still think we will see a much tighter game than most experts predict. I can’t see this being an easy task for the Catalonians and I think that the Milan side will once again show how hard they are to defeat. That combined with the, to me at least, too heavily set expectations on a safe Barcelona win from the odds makers, makes me look the other way. I think that Inter will return to an air-tight defence and steal at least one point from Barcelona.
Conclusion: Today, as well as yesterday, the Champions League makes it hard for us punters. I missed out yesterday as the match in London ended up way more focus on defensive skill than predicted but I will try to make it up to you all with a move that delivers value way beyond risk. Still, a risky one though so don’t bet any money you can’t’ afford to lose. Still I can’t resist the value provided for a double chance holding, Draw or Inter Milan to win. Bet: Draw or Inter Milan to win.
