We are getting close now to determine which teams will face each other in the finest of all club football finals, the Champions League in Munich later this month. Both semi-finals have started off as tight and narrow games and personally I don’t see any of the four teams being even relatively safe to survive into the final round. Tonight, the first finalist will be revealed to us when the final whistle blows at the Giuseppe Meazza stadium in Milan. Even though the outcome is hard to predict, the outlook for excitement and entertainment is more or less one hundred percent.
The game in Barcelona last week was one of the most entertaining matches this season of the CL, and at the same time it really underlined how tight and hard to predict the battle between Inter Milan and Barcelona is. The same goes for the upcoming return. Even though I don’t think we will see six goals tonight, I think there is more than a fair chance that this one will remain unsettled after 90 minutes as well.
In a direct qualifier like this one, my experience tells me that recent stats, form-curves etc. Hold limited value. The only thing that often has proven to give either side an advantage is if there is a strong trend where one of the team has a very clear history of beating the other side. Things like that can really impact the minds of the weaker side who may even feel defeated beforehand. But in the case of Barcelona and Inter Milan there is no such thing, they more or less take turns on winning against each other in the Champions League. And in the match in Barcelona, both sides showed that they master their own destinies regardless of what the scoreline is as long there is still time to play.
Looking at squad news, there are some slight concerns for both teams, maybe more so for Barcelona. Inter Milan has no reported injuries, but doubts have been raised for both Martinez and Pavard who have been having some health challenges. The latest reports indicate that at least Martinez will be ready to play even though his thigh might not hold for the full 90 minutes. For Barcelona, Bernal, and Casado are ruled out due to injuries, while both Lewandowski and Balde continue to have problems with hamstring respective knee. But also here, the latest reports are slightly more positive and at least Lewandowski is expected to take part of the action. While it probably against what any doctor would recommend, it is hard to keep players on this level off the pitch for a match like this and I think we will see both Martinez and Lewandowski in the starting elevens. How long they will last remain more uncertain.
So, what can expect then? As I wrote earlier, this is a tough call and I wouldn’t be super surprised if we see both extra time and penalties before the action is over. Inter Milan has a loud and fanatic home crowd routing for them and throughout the Champions League they have proven how hungry they are for the trophy. Most sportsbooks keep Barcelona as the favourite, but so they did for last week’s game as well. It proved right to follow the gut feeling last week, and I will oppose the odds setters this time as well.
Conclusion: Zero or six goals? Number of cards and corners? I honestly wouldn’t bet in any direction on these type of wagers for this particular game. But I do have a strong gut feeling that Inter Milan will be the team travelling to Munich to play the finals. With that said, if this will happen within the 90 minutes, will require extra time or a penalty shootout holds too many risks to place a bet on. Just placing a bet on gut feeling is risky enough, but I think putting your wager behind Inter Milan to qualify will prove a winning move.
