Even before the European season officially begins, the stakes are already at boiling point. Under the Riviera night sky, with fans humming along the Promenade des Anglais, the Allianz Riviera prepares to host a showdown of prestige: OGC Nice vs Benfica, with a coveted Champions League group stage ticket on the line.
For Franck Haise’s Nice, this marks a chance to validate the promise shown in Ligue 1, where they finished 4th with 60 points, just a whisper away from third. Enthusiasm has grown with each friendly, most recently a lively 3–2 win over Sheffield United.
Their preseason, however, has been a mixed scroll: wins over Cercle Brugge (2–1), Aubagne (3–0), and Feyenoord (2–1); a draw with Nancy (3–3); and a stumble against Sankt Pauli (0–2, reserves). The form is there—but the test now becomes real.
Let it be said: of all the opponents to draw in a playoff, Benfica might be the worst possible name to appear in the hat.
The Lisbon giants arrive fresh from lifting the Portuguese Super Cup, thanks to a 1–0 win over Sporting, with Pavlidis sealing the glory. Led by Bruno Lage, the Eagles blend youth and experience with names like Otamendi, António Silva, Prestianni, and the aforementioned Pavlidis shaping their spine.
Benfica haven’t missed a Champions League group stage since 2020/21 (when they fell to PAOK), and their European continuity speaks volumes. Even this summer, despite bowing out to Chelsea (1–4) at the Club World Cup, they regrouped to beat Fenerbahçe 3–2 and claim silverware in Portugal.
With fewer friendlies but more meaningful minutes, the form edge tilts slightly in Benfica’s favor.
● Nice, they haven’t reached the UCL group stage since the 1960s. Their closest modern attempt? A double 2–0 defeat to Napoli in 2017/18. ● Benfica has reached the group stage in 9 of the last 10 seasons. ● In 7 of Nice’s last 8 home matches, we’ve seen over 2.5 goals. ● Benfica has scored in every away match in 2025. ● A French team hasn’t knocked Benfica out of Europe since 1997/98, when Bordeaux did it in the UEFA Cup. ● In their 2 most recent friendlies against Nice, Benfica won both. ● Benfica have lost just 2 of their 17 away games in 2025.
The Eagles know how to navigate pressure—and playoffs.
1.40
DOUBLE CHANCE - DRAW OR BENFICA
Nice games at home tend to open up, and Benfica don’t travel lightly.
1.85
OIVER 2.5 GOALS
A man in form, freshly crowned, and in the mood for more.
1.75
PAVLIDIS TO SCORE
“When history stands on one side and hunger on the other, bet on the one that’s used to eating under pressure.” —* Master Algor Rithm, Interpreter of Incantations and Expected Goals*
