Uruguay will face Paraguay at the Estadio Centenario this Saturday for matchday seven of the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers. Uruguay sits comfortably in second place with 13 points, while Paraguay finds themselves in seventh.
After a disappointing group-stage exit in the 2022 World Cup, Uruguay parted ways with Diego Alonso and appointed the Argentinian Marcelo Bielsa in May 2023. Bielsa has had a strong impact, losing just five of his 19 games and leading Uruguay to third place at the 2024 Copa America. Uruguay won all their group-stage matches and beat Brazil on penalties in the quarterfinals but fell 1-0 to Colombia in the semifinals despite dominating possession.
Argentina, Venezuela, Uruguay, and Colombia not only topped their groups at the Copa America, but they also share another key similarity: all four teams are under the guidance of Argentine coaches. Argentine coaches have never been as popular with South American teams as they are now, and Paraguay is joining the trend following their disappointing performance in the Copa America.
Paraguay had a rough Copa America, exiting in the group stage for the first time since 2016 after losing all three matches—2-1 to Colombia, 4-1 to Brazil, and 2-1 to Costa Rica. This poor showing led to the sacking of manager Daniel Oscar Garnero. Now under new coach, Gustavo Alfaro, Paraguay will face Uruguay on Saturday, with Alfaro aiming to secure their first win in this matchup since 2007.
Uruguay have been flawless at home in this tournament, including a notable 2-0 victory over Brazil in October 2023. This match also marks a special occasion as it will be a farewell for record goalscorer Luis Suárez, adding extra motivation for the hosts.
The team’s strong defence has been key, keeping clean sheets in their last three games, with Sebastián Cáceres expected to anchor the backline. However, Uruguay will be missing key players like Darwin Núñez, Rodrigo Bentancur, Ronald Araújo, and José María Giménez, all suspended. With Suárez retiring, Olivera is set to lead the attack on Friday, supported by Cáceres in defence.
URUGUAY predicted lineup vs PARAGUAY: Rochet (GK); Nandez, Caceres, Bueno, Saracchi; Valverde, Ugarte; Pellistri, Torres, Araujo; Suarez
Unfortunately, there aren’t many stats currently in Paraguay’s favor. For instance, in their last six meetings, the team has only scored 4 goals while conceding 11. The hope now rests on new coach Gustavo Alfaro, who will aim to turn these negative numbers around with the same squad.
Paraguay have no suspensions and have kept most of the squad from the Copa America. Julio Enciso and Miguel Almiron are expected to join Antonio Sanabria in the attack, with Fabian Balbuena likely to anchor the defense.
PARAGUAY predicted lineup vs URUGUAY: Morinigo (GK); Velazquez, Balbuena, Alderete, Espinoza; Villasanti, Bobadilla; Almiron, Enciso, Sosa; Sanabria
Uruguay hold a strong head-to-head record against Paraguay, boasting 10 wins, 4 draws, and just 4 losses from their 14 previous encounters. Notably, Uruguay completed a clean sweep in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers, winning both matches 1-0.
Uruguay's attacking form has been impressive, scoring 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 6 games, and they've won 7 of their last 10 home fixtures. Defensively, they’ve kept clean sheets in half of those home matches.
In contrast, Paraguay has struggled offensively, failing to score in 5 of their last 6 outings. Their away form hasn't fared much better, with 7 losses in their last 10 road games and conceding 2 or more goals in half of them.
Tough numbers that make me think Uruguay will score in both halves.
