The final semi-finalist of the 2024 Copa Libertadores will be decided on Thursday as Peñarol and Flamengo clash in the second leg at Estadio Campeón del Siglo in Montevideo. Peñarol seized control of the tie with an early goal last Friday, securing a 1-0 victory at the Maracanã. History favors the Uruguayans—only once this century have they failed to advance from a Libertadores knockout tie after leading in the first leg.
At home, Peñarol have been a fortress this season, remaining unbeaten with 13 wins and four draws across 17 matches in all competitions.
Peñarol took a huge step towards the semi-finals of the Copa Libertadores, silencing the Maracanã with a goal just 13 minutes in, marking their second away win in this year’s tournament. Now, with everything in their hands, expectations are sky-high as they return home to face Flamengo in front of their own fans.
At home, Peñarol have been perfect, winning all four of their Libertadores fixtures. Their standout performance came against Atletico Mineiro, where they secured a commanding 2-0 victory in the group stage.
From their second-leg loss to The Strongest in the Round of 16 to their opening win over Flamengo, the only change to Peñarol's starting lineup was Jaime Baez stepping in for Leo Coelho.
Peñarol predicted lineup vs Flamengo: Aguerre (GK); Milans, Mendez, Rodriguez, Olivera; Garcia, Darias; Cabrera, L. Fernandez, Ramirez; Silvera.
Flamengo find themselves in a tough spot heading into this crucial Copa Libertadores showdown, with their tournament hopes hanging by a thread. The timing couldn’t be worse for Mengão, who have struggled for form since securing a spot in the Copa do Brasil semi-finals earlier this month. They are winless in their last three outings across all competitions, a streak they desperately need to snap.
Most recently, Flamengo suffered a heartbreaking 3-2 defeat on the road to Grêmio in the Brazilian league over the weekend, further piling on the pressure ahead of this high-stakes clash in Montevideo.
Adding to their woes, Flamengo have been hit hard by injuries. Last week, they were without Matias Viña and Luiz Araújo due to knee problems, and both Michael and Gabriel Barbosa remain sidelined with thigh injuries. With key players missing and momentum slipping away, Flamengo will need to dig deep to turn things around and keep their Libertadores dream alive.
Flamengo predicted lineup vs Peñarol: Rossi (GK); Franca, Bruno, Pereira, Lucas; Pulgar, De la Cruz; Gerson, De Arrascaeta, Carlinhos; Henrique.
Peñarol are now clear favorites to advance to the Copa Libertadores semi-finals for the first time since 2011, when they finished runners-up to Neymar's Santos. Their unbeaten home record this season, standing at an impressive 13-4-0 across all competitions, makes them a formidable force at Estadio Campeón del Siglo.
In contrast, Flamengo have struggled on the road, managing just one win in their last four outings and losing six of their past ten away matches. Peñarol's defense has been rock-solid, keeping seven clean sheets in their last ten home games. In the first leg, they successfully neutralized Flamengo's attack, allowing just one clear-cut chance and frustrating their Brazilian opponents.
With the advantage of a 1-0 lead from the first leg and their stellar home form, Peñarol are in prime position to secure at least a draw, which would be enough to see them through. As Flamengo will be forced to push forward and take risks, Peñarol will have opportunities to exploit gaps in the defense.
All signs point to Peñarol capitalizing on the edge they gained in the first match, leading them straight into the Copa Libertadores semi-finals.
