The big question is, of course, "Is it coming home?" or will the Spaniards, who have been the best team in the tournament, spoil the British party? Let's go through the conditions and try to find tonight's best bet.
No one can deny that Spain has been the best team in the tournament. Before the tournament, I was unsure how they would perform, especially considering my doubts about Morata and how Lamal would handle the pressure. Lamal has certainly proven me wrong, and the young winger has been outstanding throughout the tournament. Morata might not have scored many goals, but he has worked tirelessly upfront, creating spaces for Williams, Olmo, and Lamal. Spain started the championship in the "group of death" but made it look easy, winning all their matches. In the round of 16, they crushed Georgia 4-1 before facing their toughest opponent, Germany, in the quarterfinals. The match was decided in the dying moments of extra time when Merino headed in the winning goal. In the semifinals, they faced France, who started strong with a 1-0 lead. However, Spain equalized and then took the lead, maintaining control of the match impressively.
Spain's coach, De La Fuente, welcomes back Dani Carvajal and Robin Le Normand to the squad after both were suspended against France. Both players are expected to go straight into the starting lineup, sending Nacho and Navas back to the bench. Spain's only injury is Pedri, but his replacement, Olmo, has been outstanding since he got the chance, making this hardly a downgrade. This will be Spain's fifth final in the UEFA European Championship, having won three titles in 1964, 2008, and 2012. Their only final loss was in 1984 against France. If Spain wins tonight against England, they will make history by being the first country to win four European titles. Lamal is already historic with his goal against France, and if he starts the final, he will become the youngest player to play in a final.
Expected Starting XI:
Simon; Carvajal, Le Normand, Laporte, Cucurella; Ruiz, Rodri, Olmo; Yamal, Morata, Williams
It hasn't been a straightforward path to the final for Gareth Southgate's men, but they have improved as the tournament progressed. England started the championship by defeating Serbia and followed up with two draws against Denmark and Slovenia. In the round of 16, many thought it would be an early exit for the Brits, but in the dying moments of the match, Bellingham bicycle-kicked the equalizer. Kane scored early in extra time, and they controlled the rest of the period. The quarterfinal against Switzerland was another nail-biter. Switzerland took the lead before Bukayo Saka equalized. No more goals were scored, and the match went to penalties. Pickford saved Ake's penalty while England scored all of theirs. In the semifinal, they again fell behind after Simmons scored for the Netherlands. England quickly equalized with a controversial penalty. The match seemed destined for extra time, but Southgate's substitutions proved genius as Palmer assisted Watkins, who scored the winning goal in the 91st minute.
As most know, England hasn't won a major tournament since their 1966 home victory. They came close recently, but Italy dashed their hopes in a penalty shootout. England and Southgate have faced much criticism, but they've been improving. They played their best half against the Netherlands, showing their mental toughness when the pressure was highest. In all their knockout matches, they conceded first and had to fight back. While Southgate deserves some criticism, he has made the right decisions lately, both with substitutes and starting lineups. England improved significantly after Southgate began starting Mainoo alongside Declan Rice, a tactic he will likely continue. England has no injuries or suspensions and comes to the match with a full squad. I don't think Southgate will make any changes to the starting lineup, sticking with the same team that played against the Netherlands, despite calls for Shaw to get a chance. England enters the match as underdogs, which might suit this team better.
Expected Starting XI:
Pickford; Walker, Stones, Guehi; Saka, Mainoo, Rice, Trippier; Bellingham, Foden; Kane
There is nothing to suggest that England should win this, which is probably why they will. Spain has been far better in all their matches and dominated. Their squad is complete, and De La Fuente's tactics suit this Spanish team perfectly. Expect a match where Spain will control possession, and England's pressing game will be key to their success. If Southgate continues to make the right substitutions, they have a chance. Personally, I think it will be closer than the betting market expects. I expect England to fall behind again but find a way back into the match. So, betting on both teams to score and a draw is appealing @4.50
SPAIN VS. ENGLAND
4.50
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE - YES + DRAW
SPAIN VS. ENGLAND
4.50
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE - YES + DRAW
