Now it is settled which teams will be the opponents in the upcoming Champions League finals, PSG and Inter Milan will battle that one out, leaving me with having picked one of the two correctly. The way Arsenal started last night’s match I really thought I had nailed both, but you can’t win them all can you? Tonight, we are moving on to the Europea League to complete the same process.
While I strongly believe that we have already sorted which team to qualify from this semi-final, I still go for finding a winning bet in the match between Manchester United and Athletic Club Bilbao. I will never get why they have dropped Bilbao from the name in all listings..., but that is just a sidetrack. Man Utd took a decisive victory in the first leg and start with 3-0 in aggregate. That should be more than enough to secure a place in the finals, and I think Man Utd fans can feel quite relaxed tonight. But that doesn’t mean that there isn’t good value to find when snooping around the sports books in search of gold.
Manchester United are clearly absolute favourites to qualify for the finals; odds go as low 1,01 for that to happen so there are definitely no appealing bets to find when looking in that direction. But even if it is already more or less (you never know in football, but I would never bet against it) established that Man Utd will play the finals, stats reveal that there is value available. When dissecting the match, I started looking at two specific options, number of cards and number of goals. Given that the outlook is kind of gloomy for Athletic Club it is really hard to predict how big the fighting spirit will be and how aggressively the players will play. This raise concerns in my ability to predict number of cards even though both teams have delivered above average on that point in their latest matches.
That leaves us with finding a good value bet in relations to goals. Before jumping to any conclusions on that matter, let’s just briefly touch upon squad news. Man Utd is quite decimated through injuries on Martinez, Zirkzee, Dalot and Heaven. On top of this Obi-Martin is ineligible to start and doubts are raised about the health status of de Ligt and Collier. With a 3-0 advantage, I don’t think they will take any risks with putting unfit players into the starting eleven. For Athletic Club Bilbao the outlook is a bit brighter with only Vivian being ruled out for certain due to suspension. The club has also reported potential health issues for Sanset, De Marcos and key asset Nico Williams. I still think they will put all they can master into the starting eleven to at least give it a go.
So, where does all this leave us in terms of goal production? My best guess is that we will see Athletic Club gearing into full force from minute one in order to get a fast goal and blow life into hopes of qualifying. And with a Manchester United defense that hasn’t really impressed anyone all too much this season I think there is a fair chance that the Spaniards will succeed in placing a ball in the back of the net. But I am also equally assured that with Athletic Bilbao going full steam ahead there will be lots of opportunities for Man Utd to strike back. And it is this scenario you will find a bet with very good value compared to risk.
Conclusion: Athletic Club will go all in on offensive play and full attacking mode, anything else would be straight out weird. Manchester United haven’t showed the most impressing defensive skills but still have some very capable players in terms of scoring. Hence, my prediction will be: Both teams to score
