FOOTBALL: COMMUNITY SHIELD IS ALWAYS A GOOD TEST

The unofficial soft launch of the Premier League is upon us. On the schedule is a derby in the Community Shield between Manchester United and Manchester City, and oh, how we’ve waited.

IT'S NEVER GOOD TO FACE A PEP ON REVENGE

Last season’s league champions, Manchester City, are set to face what can now be considered their "little brother" in the Community Shield derby. City, who broke yet another record last season by becoming the first Premier League club to win four titles in a row, are out for revenge after their FA Cup loss to United. Many were likely shocked when United managed to go 0-1 and 0-2 up before City could reduce the deficit through Doku. It wasn’t enough, and Pep was critical of both himself and the team after the match, stating, "I think my game plan was not good. You plan a game for different situations, but it didn’t work." The main issue for City in that match was their inability to create enough clear-cut chances, something that rarely happens to Pep’s teams twice in a row. Ahead of today’s final, Pep has hinted that some young players might get a chance to start. Whether this is a tactical ploy or not remains to be seen, but it wouldn’t be surprising if someone like Oscar Bob starts.

PEP WITH POINTS TO PROVE

As mentioned, several players underperformed in the last final, and one of them was Haaland. Sure, he hit the crossbar and should have been awarded a penalty at one point, but he wasn’t as clinical as we’ve come to expect. The Norwegian, who dealt with some injuries last season, has had an entire summer without competitive matches to focus on getting his body in top shape, and it seems to have paid off. Haaland, who didn’t have to play in the Euros or Olympics, has been able to train and looks stronger and faster than ever—a big boost for City as they aim to win more titles this year. Otherwise, it’s the usual suspects for City. KDB, Rodri, Foden, Dias, etc., are all available and likely to start. However, there are two question marks for City: who will replace Julian Alvarez, who has been sold to Atletico Madrid, and who will take the left winger spot? Losing Alvarez is a significant blow for Pep. He’s been a reliable forward when Haaland has been injured, and so far, no direct replacement has been brought in. Sure, they’ve signed Savinho, but he’s a winger who’s being groomed for the future, and while Bob can play centrally, it’s not his best position either. I expect City to act quickly to find a backup, but as it stands, there’s no natural replacement. Then there’s the big question about the left-wing position. Pep couldn’t seem to make up his mind last year, alternating between Doku and Grealish, but he didn’t seem entirely satisfied with either of them. Greelish comes into this match with a serious point to prove after being dropped from Southgate’s Euros squad and knows he needs to perform much better to justify his price tag.

ETH WON AND STAYED

Many, myself included, thought Ten Hag would be shown the door after last season, so it was quite a shock when the club announced they had extended his contract. In my view, it was the right decision. The problem at United hasn’t been the managers but the leadership, which has treated the club like a hobby project. Sure, they’ve poured billions into the club, but it’s been equally clear that they’ve lacked a vision. Keeping ETH is a positive step towards stability, but I still feel they lack a clear vision. For example, over the summer, they brought in Lenny Yoro for £60 million, an 18-year-old center-back expected to go straight into the starting XI. That’s an immense amount of pressure to put on someone so young in such a crucial position. Perhaps "luckily," he’s injured and can be eased in more slowly, with Martinez likely partnering with Maguire or Varane for now. Besides Yoro, they made a smart signing in last year’s Serie A best player, Zirkzee. The Dutchman didn’t cost an outrageous amount and can be useful across all attacking positions. The club hasn’t lost any key players either, just squad players who’ve left. But if United wants to compete for the top European spots this year, they’ll need more, primarily a central midfielder to partner with Mainoo and a proper right winger. I don’t think United’s transfer window is closed yet, and we’ll likely see more players coming in—the question is, who will leave?

UNITEDS INJURY CIRSIS

As usual with United, they’re plagued by injuries, with premierinjuries.com listing 10 players currently sidelined. The defense looks particularly grim, with Yoro, Maguire, Varane, Shaw, Malacia, Evans, AWB, and possibly Martinez all out. It’s not a pleasant read for United fans, and in the worst-case scenario, we might see a defense consisting of Dalot, Harry Amass, Casemiro, and Amrabat, which could spell disaster for United.

ANALYSIS – THE WEMBLEY SLAUGHTER

City comes into this match with a burning desire for revenge and will surely want to prove who’s the best in town. They arrive with only Rodri on the injury list, but that won’t be a problem as I expect them to have 80% possession. Haaland hasn’t had to play any international matches, focusing on getting in shape, and he’s looked scorching hot in pre-season, recently scoring a hat-trick against Chelsea. I’m not too concerned about the defense looking a bit shaky as it’s been pre-season, i.e., exhibition matches. United might, unfortunately, have to field the worst defense I think I’ve ever seen. They also won’t have much possession, with 11 players likely camped in their own penalty area for most of the match, which is exhausting. Bruno Fernandes, who isn’t fond of defending, is also a player prone to picking up cards, either through arguments with the referee or poorly timed tackles. Last season, Fernandes “won” the team’s internal yellow card league, finishing with nine yellow cards in the league. I can definitely see him committing a tactical foul today as well. So, here are three bets from this match I’d like to highlight: - Haaland: 4+ shots, 2+ on target, 1+ goals - Winner: Manchester City - Bruno Fernandes: 1+ yellow card