The Derbi Madrileño has arrived. Atlético hosts Real Madrid in a clash that goes far beyond the league table: this is identity, rivalry, and the obsession for supremacy in La Liga.
Last match: 1-1 draw against Mallorca.
Possession: 58% | Shots: 12 (7 on target).
Goal: Conor Gallagher (79’).
Issue: Conceded in 5 of their last 6 games (8 goals against).
Simeone’s Atlético remain physically intense, but the once rock-solid defence shows vulnerability. The Metropolitano factor will be crucial, yet this is an Atlético side less impermeable than usual.
Last match: 2-0 win over Espanyol.
Possession: 72% | Shots: 16 (5 on target).
Goals: Militão (22’), Mbappé (47’).
Streak: 6 straight wins, only 3 goals conceded in that run, attack with 12 goals scored.
Xabi Alonso’s Madrid combine maturity and brilliance: defensive stability with lethal attacking power, with Mbappé already emerging as the reference point.
Last 6 matches: Atlético 2 wins | Real 1 win | 3 draws.
Goals: 16 total (Atlético 9 – Real 7).
Average: 2.67 goals/game.
The numbers highlight balance: a derby of intensity and fine margins.
Confirmed absentees: Mendy, Alexander-Arnold, Rüdiger. Xabi Alonso must adjust his back line, but squad depth allows for solutions.
Atlético: compact shape, transitions, looking to exploit gaps in Madrid’s weakened defence.
Real Madrid: possession dominance, patience, individual brilliance (Mbappé, Vinícius, Bellingham).
Key: midfield battles. Whoever wins the duels dictates the rhythm.
Expected Score: Atlético Madrid 1–1 Real Madrid
Atlético are competitive at home but defensively fragile.
Real have the form, but injuries in defence could level the playing field.
Atlético: to prove they can still compete toe-to-toe with their eternal rivals and keep themselves in the title conversation.
Real Madrid: to extend their perfect run and show that even with absences, they remain the team to beat.
The verdict: a derby of balance, tension, and fine margins. Real brings form; Atlético brings pride. Mathematics points to a draw with goals — the most realistic outcome for a Madrid clásico.
