That Newcastle will beat Leicester seems like one of the biggest banks for a long time in the Premiership. Newcastle are chasing a much desired top-four placement, they have a strong tailwind with the EFL Cup victory and quite a good streak behind them. So, while the Magpies comes with a winning streak, Leicester comes with a horrible sheet of 12 defeats in their 15 last games, all without scoring a single goal. Fully agree that it would be more than a shock if this game ended with anything but an away victory. But the close to “as-low-as-you-can-go” odds keep us from going that simple route.
So, betting on outcome of the game is disqualified by the odds, in combination with the outlook for a shocker is too low as Leicester have been playing really bad this season and a negative trend still strengthening that impression. Also, don’t forget that one of the few weaknesses Newcastle have displayed the last seasons (excluding the EFL Cup) is that they sometimes tend to fold in games that should be an easy win. That is also why I think it is wise to stay away from betting on goals in this game. But, everything tells us that this should be a very one-sided affair – with Newcastle coming in wave after wave to punish Leicester. With that as a background, even if there should be a mental block keeping Newcastle away from rich scoring, they will be on the attack most of the game. With 5 corners in average for their last 5 games, Newcastle will, facing a much weaker opponent, most likely go well ahead of those stats. To me, Newcastle over 6,5 corners provides great value with low risk.
