At least I did one good thing yesterday, in a very pedagogic way I illustrated the dangers of getting your head grow too big. Instead of settling for the Aston Villa win that came in nicely, I had to make it more difficult and chase even higher odds by adding one more factor to the bet. Both teams didn’t score, and I didn’t win. Had I settled for the 2,2x that an Aston Villa win would have given, I would have more than doubled my wager and secured an ROI that most stockbrokers don’t make in trading in three years, in less than 12 hours. But oh no, mister Know It All had to try to show off...
Sorry for that, and I hope you saw the warning lights and stayed clear of following my road. I take comfort in still having brought you all a nice return over the last months and try to start a new winning streak today. Back to the Premier League and Game Week 36 where we find Liverpool is hosting the match against Arsenal. The guests, very keen on securing the final points needed to qualify for the European elite next season, have had a good run against Liverpool lately and stay undefeated in the last five games between the two teams. That is nice reading for the Arsenal fans, but what makes the outlook a bit gloomier is the fact that Arsenal haven’t been able to produce a win in the Premiership at Anfield since 2012.
So we have a game where Liverpool have already secured winning the Premiership and the guests would most likely be OK with leaving Liverpool with one point added to their account. Not the easiest backdrop for a prediction.
The biggest question is of course just how fat and lazy Liverpool are, knowing that they are already the champions and have very little to play for. The 3-1 loss against Chelsea in the last round clearly indicated that this could be the case. But I don’t think the champions will allow for that to happen two times in a row. Especially not against Arsenal. The other big question is how deep is the rabbit hole that Arsenal seems to have fallen into. Kicked out of the Champions League, humiliated at Emirates by Bournemouth and delivering an un-impressive draw against Crystal Palace isn’t much of an energy boost for the Gunners.
Liverpool comes to the match with a squad that is quite unhurt by injury. The only players unavailable are Gomez and Morton so there is definitely room for Slot to work on a starting eleven with more capacity than we saw in the Chelsea game. The player roster available to Arteta is still harmed by injury, but at least a few names are now ready for action. Calafiori, Jorginho and Timber are back and can leave the list now holding “only” Havertz, Jesus, Magalhaes and Tomiauzy.
So where does all this lead us? Either you stick to the recent head-to-head history and stay away from going for a home-side win, or you listen to your gut feeling. My gut feeling has actually been more than decent to me over the years, but Arsenal is some kind of jinx to it as you may have noticed. It is time to break the spell from the Jinx and let the gut feeling rule. Liverpool still has a shot a breaking the magic 90 points in a season bar and I think they will go for it. Arsenal seems to have lost it lately and if the mental breakdown continues full out, they could even risk the Champions League seats that seemed so dead sure only a few weeks ago. And, finally, the odds for a home win is just too tempting.
Conclusion: Liverpool can enter the pitch fully relaxed while Arsenal march in on Anfield with what a feeling that by now probably starts to develop into proper angst. I think we will see a much more engaged Liverpool than we saw in the latest game, and I think we will see a match that puts Arsenal in an eve deeper crisis mode. Hence, I reach for the generous odds on a Liverpool win and go with that.
