Things are tightening up in the top of Premier League, at least excluding the race for the trophy where Liverpool seems to hold the winning position firmly. But below them, a number of really strong teams are fighting a tough battle to lay their hands on the desired Champions League seats. And tonight, there is a proper fight between two of the, looking at recent games, strongest competitors. Manchester City welcomes Aston Villa to Ethiad Stadium in yet another clash between the two. And how on earth this will end is almost impossible to predict. Looking at the teams’ head 2 head, this is as even as it can be. The last five games between them have ended 2 wins for City, 2 for Villa and 1 draw. And that reflects the longer history well.
So, while I personally have no strong idea on which team will win, that doesn’t mean that there isn’t good betting value to be found. The last time I delivered a prediction for an Aston Villa game; I should have followed my gut feeling and stopped at predicting a game with many goals. But, as many times before when you have had a good run, I made it to difficult for myself by adding Newcastle as winner on top of the base prediction. Stupid...
So, with that in mind, today I will stay a bit more on the safe side. It is always tempting to take the leap from odds in the range of 1,7 to one delivering 2,5+ instead. But at least to me this is not the time to look for extras. Exactly everything speaks for the game to be a wild fight for the 3 points highly wanted/needed by both sides, and stats also hold promises of a goal rich game.
A quick dive into squad news tickles my curiosity (and greed) to do exactly what I just wrote a few sentences ago, predict a winner... Injury reports give a clear advantage to Aston Villa comes with what is believed to be their full squad, no injuries, no suspensions. Only one player might be doubtful, Pau Torres who is struggling with foot problems. Man City though has a much darker story to tell in terms of status for the squad. Haaland, Rodri, Ederson, Ake and Stones are all unavailable through injuries. So, there are definitely things speaking for Aston Villa tonight. But, I will temper myself anyway and go for a safer bet.
I remain focused on goals only. And statistics firms my belief that this will be an open match with lots of offensive will and capabilities. Over the full season both teams come in at a total of almost exactly 3 goals delivered and conceded each per match. I see nothing that suggest that this pattern will be broken tonight.
Conclusion: As promised in the start of this piece, tonight I will play it safe. I have a good run with high-odds predictions lately but got a well-deserved slap on my fingers in the Villa vs Newcastle game. So, tonight we go back to the basics and settle for less. My suggestion for you guys is then to stick with Over 2,5 goals as baseline for you bets. The only extra I will allow myself today is to include that both teams will score.
