With all the European tournament semi-finals settled and all the action that went along with it, today I have a bit of the same feeling as you get after a long party night. But, as in that case – you just need to shake it off and load some new energy into yourself. And, after all, there is a lot of exciting football action all through the weekend as well. All the major European leagues are coming close to the end and there is excitement both at the bottom and the top of all the leagues.
Tonight, Serie A in Italy moves into game week 36 and there are now only three games left to firm the table for the season. Lo Scudetto, the European seats and relegation are still highly undetermined. At least to me, one of the most interesting matches this game week is the one tonight between AC Milan and Bologna. AC Milan has definitely picked up their pace in the last rounds and even though narrow, the hopes for a stunning comeback to grab on of the European qualifiers is still alive. Bologna on their end is putting some question marks to their current for curve. The Champions League spots are still within reach for Bologna, but then they probably need to leave Milan with three points.
Adding some extra spice to the match, apart from being hugely important for the teams to keep their European dreams alive, is the fact that they are also facing each other in the Coppa Italia final in Rome next week. And for both teams, apart from the glory, winning the cup is also a way to secure a ticket to Europe for the coming season. So, a lot of mind-play and one-week perspectives to be expected on top of everything else tonight. Of course this makes all predictions even harder to nail, but as always, let’s try to find a good value bet without stretching risk limits too far.
AC Milan have had a tough season leading to sacking Fonseca mid-season and regrouping under new head coach Conceicao. Most followers of the Milan team would probably agree that things are now beginning to look much brighter for the Rossoneri. The question is now what strategy the team will apply for the coming two clashes against Bologna. Of course, the ambition will be to secure six points, but which of the two wins are most desired? For Bologna, with winning a European spot through the league table more closely in sight, a win in any of the games will bring them closer to Europe. Which of the two games will they value the most, or rather see as the safest road to Europe?
Coming back to the mind play and how it will affect the squad selection, this is a crucial piece in trying to evaluate any bet and wager. The AC Milan coach, seven points behind a European spot and probably even more thirsty for a trophy in his first season in Milan than his Bologna counterpart, will probably prioritize the coming Coppa Italia final. As always in a situation like this there is a lot of smokes and mirrors in terms of squad news. For AC Milan all we know for sure is that Leao sidelined because of suspension, and that Bondo and Sottil are on the injury lists. Bologna on their end have only Holm confirmed as unavailable. I won’t even try to speculate around players put in doubt from any side for this game...
Conclusion: OK, my prediction is that Bologna will go full force into this match and treat as at least equally important as the coming cup final. The strategy for the Milan coach might be the exact opposite, but not without deeper thought and strategy behind it. AC Milan has shown a strong form in relations to goals scored lately and I have a difficult time to see the team try any defensive changes for the upcoming finals. My guess is that AC Milan will try to look at new ways to hurt their opponent and focus on finetuning an already strong attack. If I combine that with head-to-head stats, AC Milan is undefeated in their last eight home games against Bologna and scored two or more goals in seven out of these eight matches, I think AC Milan will continue to deliver goals tonight. But don’t be fooled by looking at the opponent’s stats, (Bologna have failed to produce any goals in four of their last six away games) to think you have a clear winner. Even though I predict AC Milan to produce two or more goals, I am not certain that Bologna won’t do the same.
