Yesterday, we witnessed our first Big 6 clash as City dismantled Chelsea. My prediction was agonizingly close—if only Chelsea had a better striker than Nicolas Jackson, it would have come through. Regardless, City’s win was deserved, and tonight, we head to the Midlands where newly promoted Leicester hosts Tottenham Hotspur at King Power Stadium.
Before the season, I was optimistic about Leicester’s chances of staying in the Premier League, something the betting markets disagreed with. Right now, bookmakers have Leicester as favorites for relegation. Leicester’s stint in the Championship was brief—they bounced back to the Premier League after dominating the Championship last season, spending just one year out of the top flight. Enzo Maresca and The Foxes quickly rose to the top, leading the league from matchday 10 onwards. When it was confirmed that Pochettino would leave Chelsea, Maresca became the clear favorite to take over, which indeed happened. Steve Cooper then took over as manager, having been Nottingham’s boss as recently as last season before being dismissed due to poor results.
Leicester managed to keep most of their squad intact despite being relegated, which gives them a Premier League-experienced squad now that they’ve returned. However, the club did lose their best player from last season, Dewsbury-Hall, who was sold to Chelsea. The funds from that sale were reinvested in the squad, with a significant sum spent to sign Fatawu from Benfica, who impressed during his loan spell last season. The technical winger, reminiscent of Saka in style and skill, is sure to cause problems for many full-backs this season. They also secured Caleb Okoli from Atalanta, a move that must be seen as a coup. A few years ago, Okoli was ranked as one of Italy’s most promising center-backs, and at just 22, he has plenty of room to develop further.
Leicester already has a solid Premier League core with players like Conor Coady, Vestergaard, Wout Faes, Pereira, Harry Winks, Ndidi, and of course, captain Jamie Vardy. These are not bad players, and if Cooper can establish a good system, Leicester has every chance of staying up. However, the team has some injury problems—Patson Daka needed surgery after suffering a nasty ankle injury against Lens, and Jamie Vardy also looks set to miss the opener, a significant blow as he typically enjoys scoring against top 4 teams. Full-back Justin will also miss tonight’s match, leaving Leicester with the following expected lineup:
Expected XI: Hermansen; Pereira, Faes, Vestergaard, Justin; Winks, Ndidi, Soumare; Reid, Mavididi, Fatawu.
Last season, Tottenham started brilliantly, and it felt like everyone jumped on the “Big Ange” bandwagon. But after New Year, things started to falter—partly due to injuries but also because they got stuck in a rut. They eventually finished fifth, just 2 points behind Aston Villa, which means they’ll be playing in the Europa League this year. There’s both potential and experience in this squad, and if Ange Postecoglou can sort out the defense, Tottenham should secure a top 4 spot.
Postecoglou has also been given the resources to strengthen the team this season. Early on, they brought in talents Archie Gray and Lukas Bergvall, both central midfielders who are expected to develop, though rumors suggest the two 18-year-olds might get playing time immediately after impressing in preseason. It was also clear that the club wanted to strengthen the attack, as neither Richarlison nor Timo Werner impressed last season. Spurs settled on Solanke as the perfect No. 9. Solanke arrives from Bournemouth, where he scored an impressive 19 goals last season. Then, out of nowhere, they signed young Wilson Odobert from Burnley a few days ago. The 19-year-old was an important player last season, even though he couldn’t save Burnley from relegation. Clearly, Ange saw something in him that impressed.
Unlike their opponents, Tottenham’s injury situation is much brighter, with only backup goalkeeper Fraser Forster unavailable, and the club has suspended Yves Bissouma after a video surfaced of him inhaling nitrous oxide. Rumors suggest the club wants to sell him, but we’ll see how that develops. It would be a significant loss, as he played very well last season and should be a starter for this Tottenham side. With that said it looks like Tottenham will have the following lineup. Predicted XI: Vicario; Porro, Romero, Van de Ven, Udogie; Sarr, Bentancur; Kulusevski, Maddison, Son; Solanke
This fixture has produced plenty of goals in recent years. In their last 5 meetings, the average number of goals has been 5.6(!). Those are incredible numbers, and Patson Daka would likely have been licking his lips if Spurs had planned to play with their high defensive line again this year. Now, with both of Leicester’s strikers missing, it’s likely Mavididi will get the start. Spurs know that a win against the newly promoted side is crucial, and they possess a strong attack. I don’t see it as impossible for the trend of goals in these encounters to continue. Over 3.0 goals in the match is tempting at odds of 1.88.
The first two days of the Premier League have offered everything—drama, red cards, goals galore, and referee controversies. Today, we turn our attention to London, where two of the Premier League’s top clubs over the past decade face off against each other.
As an outsider, it often seemed like there was always a bit of chaos at Chelsea when Abramovich owned the club, but it was structured chaos. Coaches could be dismissed even after winning titles, and key players were sold, yet somehow, it all worked out. However, since Abramovich handed over the reins to American Todd Boehly, the chaos has only increased—this time without structure or order. Since Boehly took over, Chelsea has spent nearly €1.3 billion on player transfers—a staggering sum. Given that they finished 12th and 7th in the last two seasons, it can only be seen as a disaster. If Chelsea fails to qualify for the Champions League this season, they could face serious financial trouble.
It seemed like Pochettino would get another season to steer the club back on course, but in classic Chelsea fashion, he was sacked despite a solid spring campaign. In his place, they brought in Enzo Maresca, who was hired after leading Leicester to Premier League promotion. Like his predecessors, he has been given a significant transfer budget to work with. Maresca brought Dewsbury-Hall from Leicester, but the big signing was Pedro Neto from Wolves. Additionally, they’ve purchased another goalkeeper in Jørgensen from Villarreal, along with promising talents like Guiu, Renato Veiga, and Aarón Anselmino.
With all these new signings, Chelsea has had to offload several players, but most of those who left were either on loan last season or never made an appearance for the club. However, one player Chelsea will miss is Thiago Silva. The veteran, who is nearing 40, was the heart of the club’s defense last season and provided invaluable experience to the young squad. The club currently has 42 registered players, making it by far the largest squad in the league, and it will need to be significantly trimmed before the transfer window closes on August 31.
Given their deep squad, it’s often difficult to predict Chelsea’s starting XI, but reports from the UK suggest it might look something like this:
Expected XI: Sanchez; Gusto, Fofana, Colwill, Cucurella; Fernandez, Lavia, Caicedo; Neto, Nkunku, Palmer.
This would be a very competent lineup. However, I have my reservations about how young midfielders Fernandez and Lavia will handle KDB and Foden when facing the league’s best team. Fofana and Colwill will have their hands full with a goal-hungry Haaland, who is both fast and strong. The attack has the potential to cause problems for City’s defense, especially with Palmer’s known quality from last season and a fully fit Nkunku, who will be interesting to watch.
In my Premier League preview, I questioned whether Pep Guardiola could reinvent the wheel once again. He has a knack for tweaking his team so that they’re always hungry for more titles, and when things start to slow down, he pulls out a new trick. It could be anything from playing four center-backs to converting a center-back into a midfielder or even moving a left-back into the forward line. Guardiola consistently reinvents himself in a masterful way, which is why he is one of the greatest managers in history.
City are the favorites to win the title again this year, although the odds are very close between City and Arsenal. This means they can’t afford to drop easy points, and I believe Pep sees a newly rebuilt Chelsea as a match that must be won.
This summer has been surprisingly quiet for City. The club has only signed one player, Savinho, who arrives from Girona. The young, technical winger had a very strong season last year, scoring 9 goals and providing 10 assists, playing a crucial role in Girona securing a Champions League spot. Most of the action has been in departures, with the most notable being Julian Alvarez, who was sold to Atletico Madrid for a hefty fee. It’s a somewhat puzzling transfer because Alvarez was crucial last season when Haaland was injured and was one of the players with the most minutes in the squad. But perhaps he was tired of the gloomy weather, which is understandable.
Many saw Oscar Bobb as the natural replacement for Alvarez. The young Norwegian, who got some minutes last season, was heavily featured in preseason, but unfortunately, it seems he has broken his leg and will be out for several months. This sparked rumors of Liverpool’s Luis Diaz as a potential replacement—we’ll see how that develops. City have the most complete squad in the league, and for once, it should be easy to predict Pep’s lineup.
Expected XI: Ederson; Lewis, Akanji, Dias, Gvardiol; Bernardo, Kovacic; Savinho, De Bruyne, Doku; Haaland.
They will be missing Rodri, which is a huge blow as City tend to play significantly worse without their midfield general, as we saw in the Community Shield match last week. The only question is whether Rico Lewis will start or if Kyle Walker will be match-fit. The attack looks incredibly strong on paper, with speed, technique, and power—a truly complete team.
The bookmakers seem to view this as a close match, which is somewhat surprising, especially considering the 29-point gap between the teams last season. The only reasons for this must be City’s somewhat lackluster performance against United and the absence of Rodri. Last season, when these teams met, it was an incredibly entertaining match that ended 4-4 in a chaotic game. Given that Rodri is out, City will be weaker defensively, and Chelsea’s front three should be able to hurt City.
That said, City’s offense is also strong and will face a relatively inexperienced Chelsea backline. So, I’m going with both teams to score + City WIN/DRAW at odds of 3.95.
In tonight’s late Premier League match, West Ham hosts Aston Villa at the London Stadium. This is a game full of intriguing details that I’ll try to break down.
Two years ago, Hammers fans celebrated their third European cup trophy after defeating Fiorentina in the Europa Conference League final. Since then, a lot has changed: the team lost its superstar and midfield engine, Declan Rice, to Arsenal; midfield star Paqueta was accused of match-fixing; they were knocked out in the Europa League quarterfinals; and they missed out on European spots in the league, finishing 9th. These developments prompted the board to take action, leading to David Moyes being replaced by Spanish manager Julen Lopetegui.
Lopetegui is a highly competent coach who has managed Spain's national team, as well as clubs like Porto, Sevilla, and Real Madrid. He also managed Wolves but left in protest after not receiving the financial backing he was promised. At West Ham, however, he has been given significant resources, with the club spending nearly €150 million this summer. This spending spree brought in players like Max Kilman from Wolves, Summerville from Leeds, Füllkrug from Dortmund, Wan-Bissaka from United, Todibo from Nice, and Luis Guilherme from Palmeiras. These are not just average signings; they are players with high potential.
Both center-backs, Kilman and Todibo, are of high international caliber, and securing a loan deal for Todibo, who was one of the best center-backs in Ligue 1 last season, says a lot. The preseason has been somewhat underwhelming, with mostly losses and draws, but that’s understandable given the number of new players who need to gel. On paper, West Ham has a squad that should challenge for European places this year, but the question is whether they can come together as a team and whether Lopetegui can get the best out of his players.
In addition to the new signings, the squad already boasts the newly appointed captain Jarrod Bowen, Mohammed Kudus, Lucas Paqueta, and James Ward-Prowse. I’ll be following West Ham with great interest this season, and they face a tough test right away with Aston Villa visiting.
Many in the UK claimed that Aston Villa was a "sleeping giant," though I was more skeptical. But when the team seemed to be in its worst crisis ever and on the brink of a relegation battle, the club made a bold move. They brought in Unai Emery, which might not sound all that bold on paper, but the Spaniard had endured a tough time at Arsenal, mocked by the British media for his limited English and lackluster results. Emery left the UK with his tail between his legs, and few believed he would return.
But Aston Villa took a chance, and Emery woke the sleeping giant, becoming arguably the league’s best manager after Arteta and Pep. He started by lifting them out of the relegation zone, guiding the team to a very respectable 7th place finish in his debut season. Last year, he showed all of England what they didn’t appreciate the first time around by leading Aston Villa to an impressive 3rd place finish behind the dominant Manchester City and Arsenal.
There were early rumors during the summer break that the club had some financial difficulties, which were resolved by selling Douglas Luiz to Juventus and Cameron Archer to Southampton for around €70 million. Additionally, they sold flop Diaby for a staggering €60 million. The money the club brought in from transfers has been reinvested in new players. Emery signed Onana as a direct replacement for Luiz, brought in Maatsen from Chelsea, who had a brilliant season on loan at Dortmund last year, as well as a bunch of younger talents with great potential.
Aston Villa has a very strong starting eleven, but the question is whether they have the depth to compete on two fronts. I’m not so sure.
This is the most intriguing duel on paper. Watkins was one of the league’s best strikers last season, contributing the most points with 19 goals and 13 assists (none from the penalty spot). Füllkrug also had a strong season, scoring 12 goals and providing 8 assists for Dortmund. Both players put in an incredible amount of work every match and pounce on any opportunity that arises. I see it as very possible that both players will contribute points today.
In terms of injuries, both squads are in decent shape, though West Ham will miss Álvarez, and Villa will likely be without Mings. Both players are crucial to their respective teams’ defensive play, so I’m expecting goals. It will take a few matches for West Ham to gel, and Emery will likely be more than happy with a point against a newly motivated West Ham in a tough environment at London Stadium with 80,000 supporters.
My bet is on both teams scoring and Aston Villa draw/win to the odds of 5.20.
Yesterday’s season opener was thrilling and well-played, with United eventually securing all three points against Fulham, who put up a strong fight. I’m convinced Fulham is a team destined for the top half of the table. United, however, will need to play better if they want to challenge for a top-four finish. Today, our focus shifts to Everton vs. Brighton and the clash between West Ham and Aston Villa.
Last season was a strange one for Everton. They played decently at times, only to be hit with a points deduction, forcing them into a battle to avoid relegation. They managed to secure their place in the Premier League, and it seems their finances have stabilized, but we’ll have to wait another year before we see the Blues step out into their new stadium.
It’s been a relatively quiet summer for Everton, who opted to stay in England for preseason instead of going abroad. This might be related to financial constraints, but they’ve mostly played against British teams with mixed results. Much of the focus around Everton has been on Onana and Braithwaite, two players who were rumored to be on the move as early as spring. The club sold Onana early in the summer, making him their second most expensive sale after Lukaku, for €60 million. Braithwaite, who was linked to United all summer, seems set to stay after United completed the signing of De Ligt, and I’m sure the blue half of Liverpool is celebrating this, as he will be crucial if they are to avoid relegation.
The club also sold Ben Godfrey, who made a substitute appearance for Atalanta in the UEFA Super Cup final against Real Madrid. With the money they brought in this summer, they decided to spend the majority on two players: striker Iliman Ndiaye from Marseille and Jack O'Brien from Lille. Both seemed overpriced to me, but I’m happy to be proven wrong. Sean Dyche remains at the helm, meaning Everton will continue to be a hardworking team that avoids relegation and is dangerous on set pieces.
For the past two seasons, it seemed Brighton’s purpose in the Premier League was to play attacking football and develop talents for the big clubs. Over the last two years, the club has sold players for over €300 million, making them the best in the UK, if not the world, in this regard. Many expected the same this summer, but that hasn’t been the case. Roberto De Zerbi, who did a fantastic job with Brighton, grew tired and left for Marseille, and in came Fabian Hürzeler to lead the team.
Hürzeler, the league’s youngest manager at just 31 years old, is seen by many as the next Pep Guardiola. I wouldn’t go that far, as he has a lot to prove—his biggest achievement so far was taking St. Pauli from Zweite to the Bundesliga last season. However, he has clearly been trusted to spend, as the club splashed out €120 million on new players this summer. Most of the money went on Yankuba Minteh, Mats Wieffer, and Brajan Gruda, all of whom are exciting players who had excellent seasons last year. Both Minteh and Wieffer were Feyenoord’s most important players last season, while Gruda is a huge talent from Mainz who could develop even further in the right environment.
It will be interesting to follow Brighton this year because it feels incredibly uncertain where the club will finish. They could just as easily secure a European spot as they could be relegated. It would have been interesting to see where De Zerbi could have taken this team if he had been given the same resources as Hürzeler.
This is an uncertain matchup on paper, with two managers who are quite different in their approaches. Dyche, a more pragmatic coach, faces off against an untested young manager in Hürzeler, who can be compared to his predecessor De Zerbi, as well as Klopp and Nagelsmann when it comes to offensive pressing. Both teams seem to be missing several key players ahead of today’s match. Everton will be without Chermiti, Garner, and Patterson. Braithwaite has been a doubt, but I think he’ll start because he’s too important for this Everton side.
Brighton, on the other hand, will be without Enciso, March, and goalkeeper Verbruggen. It’s also unclear if the crucial trio of Ferguson, Estupiñán, and Lamptey will be match-ready. Both meetings between these teams last season ended the same way, 1-1, and these are two sides that tend to go for the win, often resulting in conceding goals. I think we’ll see a similar match pattern today. Both Hürzeler and Dyche will want to make a strong statement at the start of the season, so we’re likely to see goals. Both teams would probably be content with a draw, but they’ll both push for the win as well. So, betting on both teams to score at odds of 1.63 feels like a sure thing.
Yesterday, we had to settle for only half of my predictions coming through. The Bilbao vs. Getafe match ended in a deserved draw, but if Nico Williams had started, I’m confident they would have won. The other match saw two goals, and as I mentioned yesterday, it felt like two teams that would be content with a draw in their opener, which is exactly what happened. Tonight, we turn our attention to Vigo and Las Palmas, where the matches will be played.
Celta Vigo’s final position in La Liga has steadily declined over the past four years, and many likely thought they were going to be relegated last season when they were below the relegation line halfway through. However, they finished the season strongly, securing 10 out of 15 points in the final matches to secure their place in the league. Credit must be given to Claudio Giráldez, who took over as head coach in mid-March and managed to turn things around.
Celta carried this form into the preseason, where they performed well. Ahead of the season, they bought Unai Núñez outright from Atletico Bilbao, who, like last year, will be the heart of the defense. They also brought in the reliable goalscorer Borja Iglesias from Betis, as well as former wonderkid Ilaix Moriba on loan from RB Leipzig. The club hasn’t sold any players but released about half a dozen on free transfers. So, it’s been a good summer for Celta so far, with exciting new signings and a young coach the team believes in. The question is, can they start turning the tide tonight?
Last year, Alaves returned to La Liga after bouncing back from La Liga2. Much of the credit goes to experienced coach Luis Garcia, who has created a much more stable team. Unlike Celta, they never seemed close to relegation, but like Vigo, they finished the season strongly, securing eight points from their final five matches, ultimately finishing 10th.
The club has continued to invest, with standout signings including defensive midfielder Antonio Blanco from Real Madrid, midfielder Ander Guevara, and right-back from Real Sociedad. They also brought in the Argentine prospect Luka Romero on loan from Milan. However, they’ve lost several key players from last season—Samu Omorodion and Giuliano Simeone have returned to Atletico Madrid, Javi López was sold to Sociedad, and Rafa Marin also departed. It’s hard to gauge Alaves at this point, and we’ll probably need a few matches to see where they stand this year. But one thing is clear—they need a proper striker. New signing Asier Villalibre has never really impressed me and isn’t nearly as good as Omorodion or Simeone.
It’s time for Celta to break the curse tonight—the club hasn’t won their home opener in five years, but that should change now. They have a better team than their opponents and feel more complete. Alaves are still missing some key players, and their squad isn’t as sharp as last season. I’m backing a home win at odds of 1.99.
Last season was a rough one for Las Palmas. Although they started strong and looked like they would challenge for European spots, the final 10 rounds were disastrous. The team plummeted down the table and ended up finishing 16th. However, this is a lovable team, and this season, they’re even more endearing. There are good players in the squad like Mika Mármol, Kirian Rodríguez, Álvaro Valles, and the young Moleiro.
But the team has taken a new direction—they’ve started signing British players out of nowhere. The club has brought in the charismatic Ollie McBurnie from Sheffield United and the tough Scott McKenna from Nottingham Forest, which adds an intriguing dynamic. They’ve also signed the experienced goalkeeper Jasper Cillessen as backup and bought Marvin Park permanently from Real Madrid. Las Palmas isn’t a bad team—they just had a poor finish last season. If they can keep their core, they should achieve a much better position this year.
The last two seasons have been dreadful for Sevilla. From being a consistent top-four team that regularly won European titles, they’ve now finished 8th and, most recently, 13th. This isn’t good enough for a club of this stature. The club has had financial troubles, that’s no secret, but the core of this squad is far better than finishing in the lower half of the table.
Preseason has been okay with mixed results, including a notable win against Fulham. However, they also showed they’re light years away from teams like Liverpool, and that was tough to watch. Given their financial situation, they’ve had to think differently this summer—gone are the high-profile signings, replaced by smarter, more strategic acquisitions. They’ve brought in dynamic midfielder Lucien Agoumé on a permanent deal after a successful loan spell last season. They’ve also loaned in Lokonga from Arsenal (though he’s currently injured), signed the experienced Saúl Ñíguez from Atletico Madrid, and picked up Kelechi Iheanacho on a free transfer.
The club has also let go of several underperforming players, with the only sale being Youssef En-Nesyri, which likely worries many Sevilla fans.
Historically, Sevilla has a good record against Las Palmas, winning eight of their last 10 matches, with Las Palmas’ last win coming in 2015. However, it’s worth noting that most of Sevilla’s wins have been by narrow margins. These encounters are typically low-scoring affairs, with over 2.5 goals happening only twice in their last 10 meetings. Both teams are also dealing with significant injuries—Sevilla will be without new signings Ñíguez and Lokonga, as well as Suso, while Las Palmas will be missing new signing Januzaj and the useful Pejino.
Both teams had poor finishes last season and will likely be cautious not to start this season the same way. Both teams would probably be satisfied with a point from this match, so I’m predicting a low-scoring affair of under 2.5 goals to the odds of 1.68.
It’s finally time for the world’s biggest league to kick off again, and I haven’t been this excited for a new season in a long time. A lot seems to have happened since we left the league in May. Manchester United hosts Fulham and has the honor of kicking off the season.
Last season was United’s worst league finish since the Premier League switched to its current format, and if it weren’t for a strong FA Cup win, I’m pretty sure Ten Hag would have been shown the door. For a long time, it seemed like they were searching for a replacement but couldn’t find the right one, so ETH stayed on—but I think he’s living on borrowed time if he doesn’t get off to a flying start.
United has had a tough preseason, not in terms of results but more in terms of injuries. New signing Lenny Yoro picked up an ankle injury against Arsenal and looks set to be out until November, and in the same match, Rasmus Højlund suffered a hamstring injury that will keep him out until September. Many also thought Luke Shaw would be ready for the season opener, but he’s had a setback with his injury and will miss at least the first three games. Additionally, Malacia is on the injury list, though the club hasn’t directly communicated why he’s out; it’s most likely due to mental health issues.
There are also doubts about both center-backs, Maguire and Lindelöf. However, this week, United completed the signings of De Ligt and Mazraoui from Bayern Munich. Given United’s injury issues, it’s not entirely out of the question that both of these players could start tonight despite only having a handful of training sessions with the team.
In the Community Shield against City, United fielded a midfield of Mainoo, Casemiro, and Mount, but I doubt we’ll see the same setup tonight when they need to be more attacking. This likely means Mount will be on the bench, and Bruno Fernandes will move down from his false 9 position. The attack will therefore consist of Rashford, Diallo, and new signing Zirkzee. On paper, this is a team that should beat Fulham, but anything can happen in a season opener.
Fulham is a tricky team that finished a respectable 13th place in the league last season. After it became clear in April that they wouldn’t be involved in the relegation battle, they eased off and had a rather heavy finish. Coach Marco Silva is a good manager, and he has already proven himself at Old Trafford. Last year, when these teams met here, Fulham managed to win 2-1 after a late goal by Iwobi. I remember that match well, and Fulham fully deserved all three points then.
Fulham has had a solid preseason, playing just three matches but securing good wins against both Benfica and Hoffenheim, with a loss to Sevilla. It seems Silva has focused on further gelling his team and integrating their new signings into the tactics. Speaking of new signings, they’ve pulled off something of a coup by bringing in Emile Smith-Rowe from Arsenal. The young Brit will likely play in the number 10 position or on one of the wings, and he has the quality to elevate the team, so keep an eye on ESR. They’ve also signed the competent center-back Cuenca from Villarreal and snagged Ryan Sessegnon on a free transfer from Tottenham.
However, they’ve lost perhaps their most important player from last season, João Palhinha, to Bayern Munich—a significant blow for Fulham. The big question is who Marco Silva will choose to replace him. Despite Fulham’s tougher spring, one player who stood out was Rodrigo Muniz. The Brazilian scored nine goals in Fulham’s last 15 matches and is a player United must keep an eye on tonight. I’m convinced that Muniz, Smith-Rowe, and Andres Pereira can create problems for most teams.
The odds for a United win are currently 1.60, and 5.50 for a Fulham win. I think it’s much closer than the odds suggest. As mentioned, Fulham won here last year, and from what I’ve seen so far, United hasn’t addressed the issues they had last season. The team struggles immensely to control matches against weaker opponents and concedes far too many chances. Last year, they allowed Fulham to have 17 shots, and this was more the rule than the exception in all of United’s matches. I also haven’t seen anything in preseason to suggest they’ve significantly changed their tactics—ETH seems to prefer a lower defensive line and counter-attacks.
If you throw in three new signings who aren’t used to the league and its pace, we could see a similar match pattern as last time. If you can get odds of 2.28 on a draw or a Fulham win, go for it. The fact that United concedes so many chances also opens up opportunities for a player like Pereira, who takes most of Fulham’s set pieces and is not shy about shooting. Pereira averaged 1.5 shots per game last season, so I think it’s almost certain he’ll get off at least two shots in a season opener. The odds for 2+ shots are 1.99.
Some players have favorite opponents they always seem to perform well against, and Bruno Fernandes loves playing against Fulham. He almost always plays well against them, even when his teammates don’t. Fernandes has scored three goals in their last five meetings, and now he also has Amad Diallo and Zirkzee to pass to. That Fernandes either scores or assists in the match at 1.90 odds is also worth taking.
Yesterday, we covered the top three teams, and today we continue with the rest of the clubs that will be fighting for the top spots or at least battling for the last Champions League place. First up is Manchester United, but the question is, will they finish in the top four?
Ever since Alex Ferguson left the club 11 years ago, Manchester United has been trying to find its way back to winning ways, but they’ve yet to succeed. Sure, one could argue that they’ve won some titles, but if we’re honest, they haven’t seriously challenged for the biggest trophies since their legendary manager departed. A significant part of the blame should undoubtedly be placed on the Glazer family, who have treated the club like their personal piggy bank.
Last spring, it was announced that Sir Jim Ratcliffe would become a new co-owner, injecting hope among United fans. Many likely assumed that the new management’s first move would be to part ways with Ten Hag, but instead, they extended his trust, a decision that could cost the club in the long run. The preseason has been turbulent, with losses to league rivals Arsenal and Liverpool, and over the weekend, they were defeated by Manchester City in the Community Shield. I think they held their own against City, and with a bit more precision, they could have won the match, but my main concern is that it’s impossible to understand how Ten Hag wants his team to play.
The club has also brought in some new faces at Carrington. They’ve signed the young, promising Lenny Yoro, who unfortunately got injured immediately and will be out for three months. They brought in one of Serie A’s best players, Zirkzee, to compete with Højlund for the number 9 spot, and just a few days ago, they made a double signing with De Ligt and Mazraoui. Overall, it looks promising, and it’s clear they’ve secured the players they were after.
My issue with United isn’t the squad; my issue is Ten Hag, who I don’t believe has what it takes to lead a club of United’s stature. It’s clear that they’ll be better than last season, when they recorded their worst Premier League finish, but top four? I don’t think so. My long-term bet, however, is that Zirkzee will be the top scorer. Højlund has some injury problems, which could open the door for Zirkzee, and right now, the odds are at 5.50.
Last season, the charismatic Ange Postecoglou took over Tottenham, and it had an immediate impact. The Australian played offensive football, and for a long time, everything was going smoothly at Spurs. But as the season wore on, the performances began to falter, with injuries and new signings failing to live up to expectations. Still, I’d say it was a good first year for Big Ange. They eventually finished fifth in the league, just two points behind Aston Villa, securing Europa League football for the club this fall.
The club hasn’t been resting on its laurels this summer and has probably played the most preseason matches in Europe—seven in total. The first five were either wins or draws against fairly weak opposition before they faced Bayern Munich in a doubleheader, where they suffered two close defeats. It’s been clear that the club isn’t fully convinced by Richarlison and has been on the hunt for a striker. Just recently, they secured the signing of Solanke from Bournemouth, who had a fantastic season last year and will be a valuable asset for Spurs.
They’ve also signed two young central midfielders: 18-year-old Lucas Bergvall from Djurgården and 18-year-old Archie Gray from Leeds. Both have been heavily involved in preseason, and I wouldn’t be surprised if both are included in the squad on Saturday. They’ve also sold or released surplus players like Dier, Royal, and Rondón. Overall, it’s been a smart summer for Spurs.
If we compare squads, I’d say Tottenham might have a slightly weaker squad than United, but they have a better manager and a more cohesive team, which shouldn’t be underestimated. That’s why I see them as the most likely to secure the fourth spot come spring. The odds are currently at 3.00.
You have to tip your hat to Unai “Good Ebening” Emery. Not many thought he would return to the British Isles after being sacked by Arsenal, but he took the risk and is now reaping the rewards of his courage. When Emery took over Aston Villa, they were a team in crisis, battling near the bottom of the league. Emery turned things around, and 1.5 years later, the club is playing in the Champions League. It’s simply impressive.
Last season, they finished in a very impressive fourth place in the league, thanks in large part to Emery but also to players like Ollie Watkins, Leon Bailey, and Douglas Luiz. The club hasn’t had the most exciting preseason, with mixed results. They ended their preseason with a 2-0 loss to Dortmund. Many Villa fans are wondering who will take over in central midfield after Luiz left for Juventus. The obvious answer is Onana, who they signed from Everton. The athletic midfielder was highly sought after, but Villa managed to secure his signature—a great signing for the club.
They’ve also completed deals for Maatsen, who was on loan at Dortmund from Chelsea last season, Iling-Junior from Juventus, and Cameron Archer from Sheffield United. They also decided to sell Moussa Diaby to Saudi Arabia after just one season. The challenge for Aston Villa will be similar to what Newcastle faced two years ago—balancing European competition with league commitments. We saw that Newcastle couldn’t handle it last year, and I believe Villa’s squad is too thin to manage it either.
There aren’t many attractive long-term bets for Villa, but betting on Watkins to win the assist title isn’t a bad shout at odds of 21.00—after all, he won the title last year.
When talking about Chelsea, it’s impossible not to mention all their signings since the arrival of new owner Todd Boehly. Mr. Boehly seems to treat the team like his own Football Manager save, buying players left and right without much thought or strategy. Sure, they hit the mark with Cole Palmer from City, but that seems like the only player they’ve truly gotten right. Besides players, managers have also been hired and fired at a breakneck pace. When it finally seemed like Pochettino had the team on track toward the end of last season, they decided to sack him too—utterly baffling, if you ask me.
Instead, they’ve brought in Enzo Maresca to lead the team after he achieved promotion with Leicester last season. This summer has been just as chaotic as previous years. The club has signed nine new players for the season, compared to City, Arsenal, and Liverpool, who have brought in just one player combined. They’ve also chosen to release or sell six players. Currently, the club has 44 first-team players—almost double what other teams have—so I don’t understand how they’re going to manage it.
The most exciting signing they’ve made is undoubtedly Pedro Neto from Wolverhampton, but he’s a player with significant injury issues. If he can stay fit, he could be very useful. Among those who left, Thiago Silva seems like the biggest loss. Even though the center-back is nearing 40, he was by far the team’s most important defensive player last season, and now someone without his experience will have to fill that role—it could go badly.
If you ask me today, it seems like Maresca is the manager most likely to get sacked first this year if he doesn’t get off to a good start. It probably feels even more daunting knowing they face City in the first round, which could end in a thrashing if they’re not careful. No, Mr. Boehly, this will be another mid-table finish at best. Chelsea missing the top four seems a given, and the odds of 1.50 are too good to pass up.
Finally, it’s time for one of the major leagues to kick off. La Liga quietly begins its season tonight, featuring last season's surprise team Girona and the Copa del Rey champions, Athletic Club de Bilbao.
The season opener is here, with last year's Copa del Rey winners, Athletic Bilbao, hosting Getafe at Estadio San Mamés. One might ask if the club has ever been in better shape. They clinched the Copa del Rey title against Mallorca in a penalty shootout, with both Williams brothers on the pitch. Bilbao also edged ahead of their city rivals, Real Sociedad, to secure a Europa League spot.
Bilbao’s unique transfer policy, which only allows them to sign players born or raised in the Basque Country, makes navigating the transfer market challenging and retaining key players crucial. It now seems that Nico Williams, who had a standout performance in the European Championships, will stay with the club despite persistent rumors of a move to Barcelona. They’ve brought in the technically gifted winger Álvaro Djaló from Braga, likely to relieve Iñaki Williams on the right flank. Apart from that, there hasn’t been much noteworthy activity in or out of the squad.
Preseason has been a mixed bag for Bilbao, with three losses and two wins, but I’m not putting much stock into that ahead of tonight’s match. Their last game was a 4-0 loss to Stuttgart, which certainly stung, and the club has a long injury list. Both of their goalkeepers are out, so it looks like Padilla will get the nod tonight. The young Mexican hasn’t impressed me much so far and will need all the help he can get from the defense. Additionally, they’ll be missing new signing Djaló and Galarreta. Here’s the expected starting XI:
Expected XI: Padilla; Gorosabel, Álvarez, Paredes, Berchiche; Vesga, Prados; I Williams, Sancet, N Williams; Guruzeta.
Even though Getafe secured their place in La Liga early, last season didn’t end on a high note for the Madrid-based club. They lost their final five games, and although they lacked motivation, it was still a disappointing finish. This poor form carried into the preseason, where they managed just one win in six matches. Something hasn’t been clicking for Getafe lately, particularly in their attack. They’ve only scored two goals in preseason, despite facing relatively easy opponents.
Borja Mayoral is supposed to be their main goal threat, but he’s been dealing with a knee injury since March, and I doubt the club will risk throwing him into the action right away. Additionally, they’ve lost both Greenwood and Mata, who were crucial to their attack last season, though they believe they’ve found a replacement in Peter Federico, who has arrived from Real Madrid. Unlike their opponents, Getafe is in a much better situation injury-wise, with only Mayoral unavailable for the opener. Here’s their expected lineup:
Expected XI: Soria; Iglesias, Alderete, Rico; Milla, Arambarri, Santiago; Sola, Peter, Pérez.
If Mayoral were fit and ready for 90 minutes, I would have predicted both teams to score. Bilbao’s goalkeeper Padilla isn’t quite ready for this level of competition, but with Mayoral out, Getafe will likely have to rely on the limited Pérez, whose record of four goals in two La Liga seasons won’t intimidate anyone. I think Getafe will struggle tonight, and don’t be surprised if Nico Williams decides the match for Bilbao. I’m comfortable backing a Bilbao win at 1.54 odds.
Just like their opponents, Betis impressed last season, finishing in 7th place, which gives them a shot at the Conference League, but they must first win their play-off final. The club seems to be in good shape and had a solid preseason, playing evenly against teams like Leverkusen, Manchester City, and Liverpool. Manager Pellegrini is a seasoned veteran who knows how to get the best out of his teams. Betis has made some smart moves in the transfer market, bringing in Marc Roca from Leeds, Adrián from Liverpool, and Ricardo Rodríguez on a free transfer.
They were forced to let center-back Chadi Riad go but quickly found a replacement in the experienced Diego Llorente. Key players this season will once again be Isco, Fornals, and Juan Miranda. Betis has an exciting squad, and the question is whether they can take another step forward this year, but they’ll need to bring in a solid striker to do so. They’ve lost last season’s top scorer Willian José and Ayoze Pérez, and their backup Bakambu is also injured. They’ll also be without Isco for tonight’s match, as he hasn’t recovered from a broken fibula. Here’s their expected lineup:
Expected XI: Silva; Sabaly, Llorente, Bartra, Perraud; Cardoso, Roca; Ruibal, Fekir, Fornals; Ávila.
Girona exceeded all expectations last season by finishing in 3rd place. They played impressive football under coach Míchel, who led the team to their first-ever Champions League qualification. However, as expected, several key players left after last season. The Golden Boot winner Dovbyk departed for Roma, Alex Garcia left for Leverkusen, and both loanees Savinho and Yan Couto are gone. They’ve brought in forward Abel Ruiz as a replacement for Dovbyk and center-back Krejci from Sparta Prague, but there’s no denying the team is weaker this year than last.
Their preseason was also tough, with the only bright spot being a 2-0 win over Napoli. Girona needs to add quality to their squad if they hope to secure a European spot again. Having to juggle both European and domestic competitions with a thinner squad doesn’t help their cause either. Here’s their expected lineup:
Expected XI: Gazzaniga; Martínez, López, Blind, Gutiérrez; Herrera, Romeu; Martín, Van de Beek, Gil; Portu.
Betis, as mentioned, are missing the crucial Isco for their attack, and it’s clear they lack a top striker. If there are goals tonight, they’ll likely come from Fekir or Fornals. The same goes for Girona, who are without their new signing Ruiz, fresh off an Olympic gold, and have doubts over Portu and Bryan Gil. Both teams might be satisfied with a draw to start the season, so I’m betting on Under 3.0 goals in the match at odds of 1.51, with money back if exactly 3 goals are scored.
For a long time, the conversation around the Premier League's best teams centered on the "Big 6": Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United, Chelsea, Tottenham, and Liverpool. But now, it seems we must consider adding Aston Villa and Newcastle to that mix, as both teams have recently squeezed into the top 4. Let’s start by taking the temperature of last season’s champions, Manchester City.
Year after year, people think that City might finally be satisfied with their success and have a mid season, but time and again, Pep Guardiola finds new solutions and tweaks the team to make them unstoppable. Last season’s title race with Arsenal lasted until the final day, but after a fantastic spring, City lifted the trophy yet again. Injuries to Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland were expected to derail their campaign, but Pep managed to elevate Phil Foden to a new level, making him the Premier League’s Player of the Season when injuries piled up. When the offense seemed to stall, new signing Gvardiol stepped up and played like peak Messi. Pep has a remarkable ability to get the most out of his squad year after year, and it’s truly impressive.
This summer has been unusually quiet for Manchester City, with the only notable arrival being Savinho from Girona—a move criticized due to both clubs being owned by the same consortium. The club still faces 115 charges that they will try to overturn in court, but it remains unclear when this will be resolved and what potential penalties City might face. To balance the books, they made a record sale of Julian Alvarez to Atlético Madrid for €75 million and sold several young talents to further bolster their finances. City must be considered clear favorites to win the league again even though they lost the Community Shield to United, it doesn’t say much about the entire season. They have largely the same squad as last year, but with a rested Haaland, who didn’t play in the Euros, and a fit De Bruyne from the start. My long-term bet is City to win the league and Haaland to take home the Golden Boot, currently at odds of 2.75.
Mikel Arteta has now been at Arsenal for nearly five years, and no one can take away what he’s built at the club, but the fact is, he’s only won one title with this Arsenal side. Last season, they came tantalizingly close to winning the league but finished second, and they were also knocked out of the cups early. The bar has been raised, and this year Arsenal must win something, or it will be seen as a minor failure. I’m convinced they’ll be in the mix at the top, but it requires another injury-free season for their stars Saka and Martin Ødegaard, as there are no real replacements for these two.
They say offense wins games, but defense wins titles, and Arsenal possesses the best defense in the league. Saliba and Gabriel are the league’s best center-back pairing, Ben White was the best right-back last season, and they’ve also signed Italy’s new defensive star Calafiori, who I believe is intended to play left-back or fill in as a center-back. They’ve also made Raya’s transfer permanent after a loan spell that saw him win the Golden Glove last season. The preseason has looked impressive, with wins over Leverkusen, Lyon, Manchester United, and a loss to Liverpool. Arteta has given several young talents, such as Nwaneri and Miles Lewis-Skelly, some playing time, and they will likely continue training with the first team. We’ve also seen Jurien Timber back on the pitch for the first time since his ACL injury in last season’s opener.
Apart from that, not much has happened in the transfer window; the club chose to let Emile Smith-Rowe leave for Fulham, as it was clear Arteta lacked trust in the midfielder. I’m convinced Arsenal will challenge City for the title again, and since City tends to start the season a bit slowly, I find the bet on Arsenal leading the league on Christmas Day quite interesting. The odds are currently at 3.25.
Last season marked the end of an era as Jürgen Klopp finally ran out of steam. The charismatic manager had kept pace with Pep Guardiola and City for a long time, winning both the Champions League and the Premier League. But now, the tank was empty, and he chose to say goodbye. It quickly became clear that Feyenoord’s Arne Slot would be Klopp’s successor. It’s usually tough to follow in the footsteps of an iconic manager—just ask Arsenal and Manchester United—but Liverpool fans have quickly warmed to the Dutchman, and he’s rewarded their trust by winning four straight preseason matches, with a draw in the final match against Las Palmas.
We’ve already seen how Slot wants Liverpool to play, and it differs from Klopp’s tactics. It’s clear that Slot wants his full-backs to play more centrally in the buildup, giving Trent Alexander-Arnold more space to make his passes from a central position. We can also see that Liverpool is trying to overload certain zones in the final third to create space for someone to make a run. So far, it’s looked impressive, but friendlies are one thing, and competitive matches are another. It will be fascinating to see how Liverpool starts the season.
There’s been very little activity during the summer transfer window; the club hasn’t made any signings yet. This doesn’t have to be a negative, as Liverpool already has a strong squad, and I generally dislike managers who bring players from their old clubs. They’ve been searching for a central midfielder, and for a while, it looked like Zubimendi from Sociedad would arrive, but that transfer collapsed. I think Liverpool should be happy if they secure a Champions League spot this season—higher expectations would be unrealistic given the circumstances. The club will give Slot time to develop this team, so even if there are some bumps along the way, Slot will have the board’s trust. The odds on Liverpool finishing in the top 4 are too low to be interesting, so instead, I’m betting on Darwin Nunez being the team’s top scorer. The Uruguayan missed a lot of chances last season, and with a bit more composure, he could have scored 20+ goals. I also think Mohamed Salah might dip in form, giving Nunez a chance to earn the club’s top scorer. The odds are currently at 3.75.
Tomorrow, we'll continue with Part 3, covering the rest of the BIG 6, 7 OR 8 teams.
It’s time for this year’s UEFA Super Cup, a match that many consider a glorified friendly, but to me, there’s a glamorous allure when the winners of Europe’s biggest cups face off. This year, we have two teams that seem well-matched on paper, and I expect an exciting, fast-paced game.
Real Madrid reclaimed their throne as Europe’s best team after lending the crown to City for a season, securing their 15th title last season by defeating Borussia Dortmund in a match that was much closer than anticipated. The preseason has naturally revolved around Kylian Mbappe, who finally got his long-awaited move from PSG to Real. However, Real fans have yet to see their new superstar on the pitch, as Mbappe was given an extended break after the Euros and hasn’t participated in any preseason matches. It feels like Real is building up the hype, as he has been training with the team over the past week. I imagine they’ll want to introduce the superstar tonight with great fanfare, but the question is, in what position? In Mbappe’s absence, the other new signing, Endrick, has been given a chance, but the super talent has yet to find his rhythm. He hasn’t seemed entirely comfortable with the European pace yet, and I believe he’ll be gradually integrated into the team, just like Vini Jr. and Rodrygo were. Meanwhile, the other No. 9 in the squad, Brahim Diaz, who returned to Real Madrid after a somewhat unsuccessful loan at AC Milan, has looked sharp in the preseason.
When the focus hasn’t been on Mbappe’s transfer, most of the talk in Madrid has centered on how the team will cope without their midfield talisman, Toni Kroos, who hung up his boots after the Euros this summer. Real Madrid has clearly lost a fantastic passer and midfield engine, and many fans are wondering who in the squad will step into that role. I believe Don Carlo has a few ideas on how to solve this, likely with Valverde and Tchouaméni anchoring the midfield, while Jude Bellingham takes on a more offensive role.
I don’t think Real Madrid will hold back today; they’ll likely field their best possible eleven, and Real fans will finally get to see their new favorite, Mbappe, leading the attack.
Expected XI: Courtois; Carvajal, Rudiger, Militao, Mendy; Valverde, Tchouameni, Bellingham; Vinicius Junior, Mbappe, Rodrygo
Not many expected Atalanta to have a chance when they faced a brilliant Bayer Leverkusen in the Europa League final. Leverkusen, who had gone through the entire season unbeaten, was just one game away from a perfect season. But Gasparrini, and especially Ademola Lookman, had other plans. Lookman has had a rocky career, not least when he took the worst Panenka penalty in history against West Ham. But since arriving at Atalanta, things have looked up, and Lookman came close to making Southgate’s Euros squad. In the final, Lookman was brilliant, scoring a hat-trick and securing the victory for Atalanta, who won 3-0. However, the preseason hasn’t been as enjoyable for Atalanta’s players, with two losses and a draw in three matches against fairly mediocre opponents in Parma, St. Pauli, and AZ Alkmaar. There are many question marks surrounding Atalanta’s current form, and many Atalanta fans worry that they might face a heavy defeat tonight.
It’s been a hectic summer for the Bergamo club, with five new players coming in and eight leaving. The most exciting name is, of course, Charles De Ketelaere, who joins permanently from Milan after a successful loan last season. The Belgian, who struggled to find his feet at Milan, blossomed at Atalanta and was one of the team’s most important players in the spring. The technical Belgian scored 10 goals and provided 8 assists last season. In addition to De Ketelaere, they’ve also signed Retegui from last season’s surprise team, Bologna, and British center-back Ben Godfrey from Everton. Godfrey is seen as a direct replacement for Caleb Okoli, who was sold to Leicester, while Retegui replaces Duvan Zapata, who was sold to Torino. There are some injury problemes in the Atalanta squad at the moment, Scamacca, Scalvini, Zaniolo and Toloi are all likely to miss the game due to injuries. That will surley hamper Atalantas chances to get a result tonight.
Expected XI: Musso; Djimsiti, Hien, Kolasinac; Zappacosta, Pasalic, Ederson, Ruggeri; Lookman, De Ketelaere, Retegui
Even though many see this match as a friendly, I believe Real Madrid will want to show who’s the best in Europe right from the start. I don’t put too much stock in their preseason matches, which have been a bit inconsistent. They’re likely to field one of the world’s best attacks with Mbappe leading the line, and he’ll surely want to show his new fans what he can do. Mbappe is lightning-fast, something that can’t be said about Djimsiti, and that’s a duel I’ll be watching closely. I expect Atalanta to sit back to avoid getting hit on the counter, as Real could have a lot of fun tonight if Atalanta tries to get to many players forward. But even if Real dominates possession, they have enough quality to break down a deep defense. Also the many injuries at Atalanta will not make their chances any better. The only thing that could work in Atalanta’s favor is if Real comes into the match poorly motivated and i dont see that happening. Therefore, today’s easiest bet feels like Real Madrid to win at odds of 1.49.
If you’re feeling a bit adventurous, I’d go for a fun special that I can really see happening: Kylian Mbappe 5 shots + 2 shots on target + 1 goal and Real to win at odds of 3.99. If he happens to start on the bench, the bet will be void, and you’ll get your money back.
