The PGA Tour playoffs (FedEx Cup) are about to kick off.
I've seen plenty of tips and picks focusing on players who hit the ball incredibly long, with the reasoning that Castle Pines Golf Club in Castle Rock measures a whopping 8,130 yards. However, that number is quite misleading. At this high altitude, the ball will fly 10, 15, sometimes even 20 percent farther than usual.
This makes it a tricky adjustment, especially when attacking the pin. The brain often plays tricks on you... You might find yourself holding a 7-iron when you really need something entirely different.
The field is down to just 50 players. Although all of them are strong, in-form players, there are still "only" 49 competitors to beat.
Adam Hadwin is one of the players in the field with the most experience playing at high altitudes, having performed exceptionally well in Mexico a few years ago. He could get red-hot with the putter.
Matthew Fitzpatrick has won several major titles, including the US Open, and has about ten international victories, including one in Switzerland at Crans-sur-Sierre Golf Club, where the course weaves through ski lifts and more. He’s also obsessively meticulous, so he has his yardages down pat, whether he’s playing at Pebble Beach, back home in England, on the moon, or, as now, at high altitude in the Rocky Mountains.
As a golf enthusiast, it's easy to become a bit jaded... Week in and week out, there's always another tournament to follow. Many of them start to feel routine—another perfectly manicured course on the PGA Tour that, honestly, looks like the last one.
But this week is different. While football fans bemoan the international break, we get to indulge in one of the most breathtaking courses of the year. Crans-sur-Sierre, in Crans Montana, comes alive under the late summer sun, offering a stunning backdrop usually hidden beneath the ski slopes in winter.
This course isn’t just a pretty picture; it demands more than just power from the tee. Patience, precision, strategy, and a deep understanding of the course are crucial. It’s no coincidence that the same players often rise to the top of the leaderboard here.
Jorge Campillo, a true gentleman from Cáceres, Spain. Neatly dressed and well-groomed off the course, and his golf game mirrors that style—nothing too flashy, but with very few mistakes. He’s had solid performances in the Swiss mountains before. While everyone loves Crans Montana, there are few players who adore this course as much as Antoine Rozner, who is like a French version of Campillo. After last year's tournament, Rozner shared on Instagram, "Best week of the year, Crans Montana never disappoints."
If there’s ever a week to pay extra attention to past results, it's this one. It's no coincidence that the same players consistently rank high on the leaderboard year after year at Crans Montana—a venue where Swedish golfers have enjoyed plenty of success. Previous winners include Alex Noren, Sebastian Söderberg, and Ludvig Åberg.
One player who's come close but hasn't quite sealed the deal? Alexander Björk. He's struggled with motivation over the past year, even discussing the issue in several interviews during the Scandinavian Mixed event. Since then, he’s only competed in two tournaments, without much success. However, he loves this place, and if there’s ever a time for him to rediscover his inspiration, it's this week. His iron play could get red-hot, and if it does, he might just find himself back in the spotlight.
Crans Montana has five Par-3 holes and several reachable Par-4s. The field is also packed with many players who have impressive hole-in-one records.
Any tournament? On one hand, yes – on the other hand, not at all. As a golf enthusiast, this is often the tournament you’re glued to. A fantastic course in a spectacular setting, high up among the ski slopes of Crans-sur-Sierre, Crans Montana. It takes something extra to succeed here. After missing the cut twice (in 2018 and 2021), Connor Syme cracked the code last year (tied for third place). It was actually just a matter of time. He loves this type of course, where precision and patience are key. Jesper Svensson is making his first appearance at Crans Montana this week, and considering it usually takes a few tries to get it right, I find it hard to see why he’s being set up as a favorite.
As mentioned, it doesn't seem like a bad idea to stick with the Swedes on this course. Can Marcus Kinhult navigate his way through the mountains too? Without a doubt! He usually thrives on this type of challenge, and we can draw parallels from his results in Kenya. Different continents, different climates...but the need for precision and "tricky golf" is very similar.
I've seen a lot of slashed odds among the major and mid-range favorites at the bookmakers. It's not surprising, as the market is leaning towards players with proven strong results on this tricky course. However, it's tough to find value at such low prices. If anything, it would mean backing just one player and putting all your eggs in one basket, which doesn't really interest me. There are underdogs to be found here. Personally, I had Sebastian Söderberg in the "Top 5" at 81.00 (still kicking myself for not going for the outright bet at over @500.00). Scott Jamieson is very streaky, and he was tied for fourth here two years ago.
He hasn't participated (or hasn't always been able to) in the last three years, but he finished T8 in the tournament back in 2019. He played incredible golf in the first round, even sharing the lead with three lip-out birdie attempts. He cooled off a bit after that but still put in a solid performance. He was even heard saying, "This is fantastic, feels just like home" (he’s from Austria).
Sure. I've talked a lot about "Course Knowledge/Stats." We might not have that fully covered with these last picks. Lukas Nemecz missed the cut last year and the year before that, he finished in a mediocre 62nd place.
But I still get the feeling that he might do something similar to what his compatriot (Matthias Schwab) did in 2019—come through like a bolt from the blue. Just two years ago, he was ranked in the Top 20 for approach play and Tee-to-Green. It doesn't take much for everything to fall into place for a notably talented player who feels at home in the Alps.
I don't want to question Sung Kang's intellect, but I'm skeptical if he could even point out Switzerland on a map.
We've mostly seen him in Asia, and especially on the PGA Tour. He's incredibly inconsistent but has an astonishingly high ceiling. That's why I almost always include him in my "First Round Leader" picks. He has a 7th place finish at the PGA Championship on his resume and has won on the PGA Tour. I just can't ignore Kang, even though this is his first visit to the mountains of Central Europe.
A course we know very well by now. Hosted the Open de France and was also in charge of the Ryder Cup 2018. Alexander Noren has been cheered here twice, partly as an individual winner - but was also part of the European RC team that triumphed.
This time, I think another Swede can celebrate.
Talk of a slump in form, but come on...that's just rubbish! Went out in the lead ball during the final lap in Scotland - as the sole leader - but did not get the game fully right and fell back. That final spurt probably took a bit of effort, both physically and mentally, because it was an unusually sloppy Ludvig we saw during The Open. But you also have to consider the conditions - and look at all the other top names who missed the qualifying cut-off. From Thursday, the weather should be better in Paris and I hope Ludvig can have a shiny gold medal around his neck in a few days!
Shane Lowry was in the winning hole for a long time at The Open, but it all came crashing down on moving day, in the pot bunker on the fabled eighth hole. After that, it was all a battle of wits, weather and wind - and short putts, right on the line. Lowry has a good psyche and usually bounces back immediately.
From Belgium, but grew up relatively close to Paris and has been there and tasted the Golf National several times over. Often with very good results. Difficult to find other courses/competitions to draw correlations with, but several players who have done well at Celtic Manor - have also achieved good results at Albatros GC.There we can also call in Detry (a 12th place and a second place there). He is also, since his youth, used to representing his country. After all, it is a special task for a golfer. Can get rowdy on the greens and that is always a key.
Phachara Khongwatmai. The bloke with the impossible name. Broke through very early. Won a professional tournament at the age of 14. Never has any nerves and used to seeing his name high up on the leaderboards. Might need to sharpen up his tactics/gameplan - you don't need to fly all the flags. But for those of us who want to find value in the First Round Leader market, just say thank you and take it. It can be a bumpy ride, especially on a course with a lot of water (like this week), but if Phachara finds his rhythm quickly, he has all the tools to shoot a low score in the first round.
Back to the grind.
It's been a strange transition for players on the LIV Tour.
Many struggled in the foul weather at Royal Troon last week. Before that, they were just coming from sunny and scorching Valderrama (southern Spain).
Now, it's unknown territory, but we're still in the UK. Specifically, the meticulously groomed JCB Golf and Country Club.
Many of us golf enthusiasts have been drooling over various YouTube clips of this new course (opened in 2018). We've seen the world's most overrated golfer – Rick Shiels – flounder on Robin Hiseman's beautiful creation in Rocester.
Despite this, it's obviously hard to predict what real pros will do on this track.
Many say it resembles a PGA course, and I've seen several interviews with players drawing parallels to TPC Deere Run. There is also the following statement: "The design brief was to fashion a layout to test elite golfers – similar to the TPC Deere Run course in Illinois which hosts the annual John Deere Classic event on the PGA Tour."
Several of the players teeing up this week have, of course, been there, and one of those who has performed the best is Matt Jones. He maintains a relatively low profile on the LIV Tour, but on the right week, he has the tools to compete with the very best. As usual, it's a fairly narrow field, and at these prices, it's worth a shot.
The US Open is hosted on different courses each year, but it typically features the same tough obstacles. Usually, players face thick and lush rough that only gets worse as the week progresses. This year, however, Pinehurst presents a unique challenge with sandy waste areas and wiregrass. This can result in favorable lies despite missed fairways, but it can also lead to complete disaster. It's somewhat of a lottery, but over four days, quality and class usually prevail over luck.
Given that the tournament is on the East Coast, in North Carolina, it might be wise to focus on players who perform well during the "Florida Swing," where Bermuda grass is common.
Viktor Hovland: Has really found his form recently and exudes quality. Strong record in Florida.
Tommy Fleetwood: It's almost incredible that such a skilled player hasn't won on American soil yet. In my notes, it says, "When he finally wins, it's likely to be in Florida." Well, we're not far from that this week. Since 2017, Fleetwood has top-10 rankings in Florida in the following categories: Strokes Gained: Total, Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.
Sung Jae-Im: Almost robotic in his consistency. Plays week in and week out, never tires. Loves golf and loves the East Coast of the USA. There are nearly 600 players who have played 40 or more rounds in Florida over the past 40 seasons. Best scoring average? Yes, you guessed it: Tiger Woods. Who's second best? Nope, it's Sung Jae-Im! Worth testing at great odds.
Justin Thomas: Poor confidence on the greens has hampered Justin Thomas's game over the past year, but I believe there is reason for optimism. Normally loves playing in Florida and putting on Bermuda grass. It's also nice for him to stay out of the pre-tournament spotlight, reducing the pressure. He's far too talented to stay in his slump much longer.
Sam Burns: Incredibly skilled on the greens. Always an advantage when considering the First Round Leader market. Burns hits very long and putts very well – when fast Bermuda greens are involved, his stats usually approach top class, even when looking through the history books. The odds are appealing. Sharply. I'd rather back him in the first-round market, as I'm unsure if he can handle the pressure over four days of Major play.
The Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village is renowned for its demanding course, requiring every aspect of a golfer's game to be in top form.
Tommy Fleetwood has a dozen titles to his name but has yet to secure a victory in the United States. However, this course seems to suit him perfectly, and odds of 30.00 make him an interesting pick. His game is well-rounded, and this could be the event where he finally triumphs on American soil.
Collin Morikawa is poised to win again. He has the form, mentality, and composure needed to go all the way this weekend. Additionally, he’s seeking redemption after last year when he was just two strokes behind the leader after 54 holes but had to withdraw due to back issues that had been troubling him in the days prior. Now injury-free, Morikawa is a strong contender.
Tommy Fleetwood to Win: Odds of 30.00 reflect the potential of Fleetwood to finally clinch a title in the US on a course that suits his game. Collin Morikawa to Win: With his current form, mental strength, and the drive to redeem himself after last year's near miss due to injury, Morikawa is a solid bet to secure a win. These picks leverage both players' strengths and the specific demands of the Muirfield Village course, offering promising value for the Memorial Tournament.
Yesterday's "Value Bet" looked like it was going to hit within just a few minutes... But luck wasn’t on our side. Sudakov (4.00) missed his penalty!
It’s just a matter of picking ourselves up, not chasing losses, and continuing to search for value with discipline.
My "NAP of the day" is Florian Wirtz "Score or Assist" @2.00. Bayer Leverkusen went unbeaten in the Bundesliga last season. It's an incredible record considering the tough competition they faced. This season, they suffered their first loss early on, in the second round, but it was completely undeserved. They created plenty of chances. Keeping Florian Wirtz is almost a guarantee that they will have another strong season. He was directly involved in 37 goals last season and is involved in almost everything that happens in their attack. Feyenoord is a good team, but there's a difference between the Eredivisie (where 70% of the matches are relatively "easy") and facing top European opponents. They won't be able to stop one of the tournament's best players!
BRENDAN CHARDONNET (BREST) PLAYER CARD – ODDS 4.00 BREST VS STURM GRAZ... On a Thursday. Hmm... it feels more like a Conference League match, but that doesn't mean we can't find good bets. Brest is making their first appearance on the European stage, among the "elite" of Europe’s biggest clubs. Mr. Brest, captain Brendan Chardonnet, has been part of the journey from start to finish, and I just assume he’ll be leading from the front.
EMANUEL AIWU (STURM GRAZ) PLAYER CARD – ODDS 4.25 Emanuel Aiwum, a young center-back for Sturm Graz, loves to make tough tackles. We saw this often when he played in the Championship last season, where referees were more tolerant.
OTAR KITESHVILI (STURM GRAZ) SCORE OR ASSIST – 4.00 A player who is always involved in the action. He picked up ten yellow cards last season. The odds for SAC (score or assist combo) are 3.25—fair, but no value there. But getting 4.00 on "Score or Assist" feels completely illogical. We're talking about an explicitly offensive player who scored ten goals and provided seven assists last season!
Also, here’s a combo for some juicy odds… Mohamed Salisu will have a lot to handle tonight, and eventually, it may take some illegal methods to stop Lamine Yamal & Co. Conor Gallagher has been close to getting booked in La Liga but has managed to escape. Will he have the same luck when Atletico Madrid faces a counter-attacking Leipzig in the Champions League?
A rematch of the 2023 final in Istanbul. There, Man City came out on top, thanks to Rodri (who makes his return to the starting lineup tonight). Pep Guardiola has all his key players available. A powerhouse starting eleven – and plenty of options on the bench. There will be enough strength to attack from kickoff to the final whistle.
Inter is one of the few teams that will head to the Etihad with more than just "0–0 in mind." They'll, of course, be cautious but are guaranteed to push forward when the opportunity arises. Mkhitaryan, Calhanoglu, and Barella will pull the strings in midfield. On the wings, there are lungs and crosses from DiMarco/Dumfries. And up front, Thuram will "chase every ball," while Lautaro Martinez will attract defenders and be ready in the box.
I’d be very surprised if these two teams don’t manage to generate at least nine corners.
Bologna has suffered significant player losses, primarily the duo of Calafiori and Zirkzee, and has also lost their skilled and popular coach Thiago Motta, who is now with Juventus. The team is dealing with some injuries, and Lewis Ferguson is expected to be unavailable, which is a crucial loss. Bologna has started the Serie A season with a record of 0–3–1. So, should they really be considered heavy favorites as they enter the Champions League for the first time in ages? My answer: Not really.
Shakhtar Donetsk is accustomed to being on the big European stage, but currently, the conditions are far from ideal. Still, I believe they are being somewhat underestimated tonight. On the injury front, everything looks good. Although they are playing away, I actually think it could be a boost for them to finally play in front of full stands again, something they haven't been spoiled with in these dark times.
Georgiy Sudakov is being watched by almost all the major clubs in Europe. Barcelona has shown interest, but according to Ukrainian media, they can't afford Shakhtar's high price tag. Sudakov is both a playmaker and a goalscorer in one package. When looking at Player Props/Goalscorer markets, having the team's first-choice penalty taker is also a significant advantage. @4.00 looks very interesting.
Maxim De Cuyper – An extremely productive left-back (more like a typical winger). Skilled at joining attacks, good at combining plays, and has insanely accurate crosses.
Federico DiMarco – Wing-back for Inter. Handles most of the team’s corners and free kicks. There are many strong aerial players to aim at. Manchester City has very few weaknesses, but they do actually lose more aerial duels than they win.
Here we go.
Finally, we're in the group stage of the Champions League... Or, sorry.
"The league stage."
It's a new format this season. Feels fresh in some way. The old group stage had run its course. In some way, I think this new format might suit Atletico Madrid really well. They’ve strengthened their squad. Over a long La Liga season, they may not have quite the same resources as Barcelona and Real Madrid. But in the Champions League, it often just takes being good, and then flashing moments of brilliance with "really great" performances when the heat is on in the late knockout stages.
Diego Simeone has a really solid squad. Alexander Sørloth is a great signing. He poured in goals for Villarreal last year. Antoine Griezmann (Assist-winner @51.00) has something to aim for... Liverpool got stuck in the "woods" in Nottingham over the weekend, but that doesn’t change my opinion.
They have every opportunity to have a good season, both domestically and in Europe. Trent Alexander-Arnold (Assist-winner @67.00) only registered four assists in the Premier League last year, but it easily could have been double. He saw a lot of passes wasted with poor finishing. Dortmund always plays attacking football. They’ve brought in Serhou Guirassy—who was a red-hot goal machine for Stuttgart last year. He'll get good support. Among others, Pascal Groß (Assist-winner @101.00), who for several seasons has been involved in most of the attacking play at Brighton—whether he's been playing as a midfielder or full-back.
A fun longshot bet at triple-digit odds!
Pedro Gonçalves. When it comes to Sporting Lisbon, all the talk is almost always about Viktor Gyökeres. But for the love of everything, don’t forget about the superstar midfielder Pedro Gonçalves. Great with the ball, smart with the ball, smart without the ball, skilled at beating his man, and excellent at finding teammates in open positions. A great shooter. Goal or Assist against an out-of-form Lille... At 2.00 odds, it’s a must!
Morten Hjulmand. He’s set to play as the balancing act and ball-winner in an offensively-oriented Sporting Lisbon. Often finds himself in tricky situations, and it’s no coincidence that the Dane picked up twelve yellow cards in the Primeira Liga last season.
Young Boys have made a strong comeback after their coaching change, and this Champions League journey is just a bonus. They were heavy underdogs in the playoff against Galatasaray but made it through—thanks to blood, sweat, and a fair amount of luck. Two players who struggled to keep up with the pace were defensive midfielder Sandro Lauper and left-back Jaouen Hadjam. Hadjam: The team's most booked player at the start of the season, often plays on the edge. Lauper: Has seen the yellow card in three of the last four matches, including in the playoff against "Gala." Despite this—and a strict referee (Georgi Kabakov)—we're getting 4.00 on both. Great value!
Ryan Flamingo. The biggest match—so far—in the young center-back’s career, who made the move from little Utrecht this season. Overexcited? It wouldn’t be surprising, and the odds are a bit too generous.
Parma is a breath of fresh air. They've decided to play without overthinking the consequences. They've had the upper hand in terms of chances at home against Fiorentina and Milan. They didn’t hold back away against Napoli either, really trying to impose their own style on that match. They could have scored more, even hitting the post with a header. They've sold the duo Partipilo/Inglese and are also missing suspended keeper Zion Suzuki and injured Mateusz Kowalski.
On the 1x2 market, I'd be most interested in a "draw" (perhaps 2-2), but my bet will be something else.
Jesper Karlström won the Swedish championship with Djurgården. In his last season, he picked up ten yellow cards! He then moved to Ekstraklasa in Poland...Lech Poznan, to be exact. He continued playing tough and hard, eventually becoming a national team player. Now, he's made the move to Serie A and Udinese. He's starting to settle in, putting in quite a few tackles. Is it time for his first booking? At odds of 3.50, I'm inclined to take the bet.
It’s hard to imagine this will be a beautiful football match.
Osasuna has gone two straight games without creating a single big goal-scoring chance. Despite that, they still managed to win 3–2 in their last match (thanks to an own goal). It was a complete case of maximum efficiency. Before that, they were ice cold against Girona—managing just one shot, in the 93rd minute, from 30 meters out! There are doubts surrounding striker Ante Budimir’s availability, and they are also missing Iker Muñoz and Kike Barja.
Three out of Rayo’s four matches this season have ended with exactly three goals (one 2–1 win and two 1–2 losses). Alfonso Espino and Diego Méndez are out due to injuries, and there’s a question mark over Aridane Hernández.
If you’ve been following along since the start of the season, you’ll know I’ve already gotten burned a couple of times betting on Oscar Valentin. But, just like last year, it looks exactly the same. In the end, we still managed an ROI of 111% on SAC/Oscar Valentin. It’s simply not sustainable to get away with so many shirt pulls, cynical fouls, and tackles without eventually getting booked. Sooner or later, it will happen.
On top of these single bets, I’m also placing a Goal or Assist bet and making a combo...
Verona has shown that they’ll be able to trip up many teams this season. A well-deserved win away against Genoa, and they also held off Napoli in the opener. They couldn’t handle Juventus, but they definitely weren’t "0-3 bad" in that match. Eleven of their players were away on international duty, but most seem to have returned without injury.
Lazio is expected to line up as follows: Provedel; Marusic, Patric, Romagnoli, Tavares; Guendouzi, Rovella; Noslin, Dia, *Zaccagni; Castellanos.
Zaccagni—wouldn’t be surprised if he steps into the spotlight against his former club. He had a less productive season last year, but there’s plenty of quality there. It doesn’t hurt that he handles most of the set-pieces...
Verona was one of the teams that conceded the most chances from set-pieces last season.
We "bettors" don’t like it – club team coaches don’t like it (I can only imagine what Mikel Arteta felt when Martin Ødegaard went off injured for Norway this week).
But now everything is back to normal, and we can sink our teeth into European league football again.
I've singled out about ten bets, all singles – plus a combo, which could get the pulse racing a bit and hopefully give us "a run for our money."
A striker who hasn’t been excessively carded in recent years. Still, he's a scrappy forward, getting into numerous duels at the start of this season. He’s leading the line for the Tractor Boys, and away against Brighton, he'll be forced to help out defensively.
Okay, perhaps the wonder surrounding Aston Villa isn’t quite as strong as last season, but it’s still a very good team – one that likes to attack, especially at home.
I’m still surprised that they haven’t been made even bigger favourites. The odds have been creeping up day by day. Could it be that people are betting on "wrong focus" or "rotation" ahead of the Champions League? Maybe. But I find it hard to believe they’ll throw this match just because they’re facing Young Boys next week. Many players were away on international duty, but several had limited minutes, so there shouldn’t be much risk of fatigue.
Morgan Rogers scored 3 goals and had 1 assist in just under 650 minutes of play last year. He’s been playing behind Ollie Watkins and has come close to both goals and assists. Soon, he’ll get his reward.
Everton prides itself on being hard to beat. But talk about a total meltdown last time when they threw away a 2-0 lead to lose 2-3 in just a few minutes! A big, tough puzzle for Sean Dyche to solve.
Nottingham will be in for a rough time at Anfield. They’ll probably only have 30% possession – at best. I backed Trent Alexander-Arnold for "To Assist" when England played Finland this week, and it came through nicely. I have a feeling it won’t be long before odds drop below 3.00. Arne Slot has given him full confidence and the freedom to push forward and move centrally from his starting position. He whips in crosses and delivers through balls. With form players ahead of him, 3.50 looks highly interesting.
An early London derby. An early key match. Given the circumstances, I really think Tottenham "sees their chance." Arsenal dropped points against Brighton after receiving a red card, and in a few days, they’ll face Atalanta in the Champions League – with Man City waiting after that. With a bit of bad luck, they could fall significantly behind already. They may be forced into two midfield changes (Rice is out, Ødegaard is a question mark). All signs point to Kai Havertz dropping deeper. He often gets praised for his off-the-ball work, but he doesn’t exactly shy away from physical play either. He racks up quite a few fouls.
Tackles, fights, grapples... No, just kidding. But Gragera barely shies away from any means necessary to stop opponents or at least throw them off balance. I can’t understand how he’s avoided being carded so far. The cards could start "pouring" soon.
Just as I warned before the season – it might be difficult for Sevilla to adapt to an entirely new style of play. They’re now coached by perhaps the most possession-obsessed coach in the country. 0-2-2 after four rounds. Noticeably frustrated last time, both in the stands and on the pitch. They were 1.75 favourites in the corresponding fixture last year. They lost 0-3, conceding two penalties. Getafe has barely allowed a single chance so far this season. Their primary goal will be to make life tough for Sevilla – who could "boil over." Lucien Agoume’s odds have dropped on the SAC market (live) in every match so far.
There’s a lot of good things to say about Zito, but he’s not exactly a goal machine – at least not for Cagliari (they don’t create much either). In the last two seasons, he’s picked up more yellow cards than goals. Against Napoli, there’ll be at least as much defensive work as offensive, even though he’s listed as a forward. 4.50 looks interesting.
A real gem.
They were heavily tipped for relegation before the season, which began with a 1-4 loss to PSG. But even then, it was clear that this team has more potential than many seem to think. They equalized to 1-1 against PSG and were just minutes away from taking a point before it all unraveled in the final moments. Since then, they've bounced back with two well-deserved wins against St Etienne and Auxerre. Strangely, this hasn’t affected their pricing for the upcoming weekend.
Erik ten Hag is now the favorite in the betting market for "Next Manager to Be Sacked."
He's been in this position before, but back then—just at the last minute—he pulled off something big that saved him from trouble. However, it feels like he’s used up all his "Get Out of Jail Free" cards by now. If they drop points against Southampton... well, it might be time to pack his bags. I’m starting to doubt whether the squad even wants him to stay. Gareth Southgate is currently out of a job, for example...
United had a good record against teams in the bottom half of the table last year, but there were many times they barely escaped. A couple of 2-1 away wins against teams that ended up getting relegated...
Southampton has looked anything but good, but I still have a feeling they could spring a surprise today... Maybe they'll score from a set piece, and with United's shaky defense, I wouldn’t rule out a penalty either.
I'm taking a chance on a high-scoring draw and a "bye, bye Erik."
Friday the 13th... But that's just an old superstition.
I think we could have some good luck today and I'll try a Player Prop in La Liga.
Leganes are a poor team compared to the other clubs in La Liga. They need to be frugal and often look for players in the bargain bin. They're well aware of their place in the hierarchy and play according to their resources. There’s no question of controlling matches or dominating possession. They drop deep and focus on counter-attacks. However, this tends to lead to quite a few set-piece situations for the opposing teams...
Nabil Fekir has left northern Andalusia, taking his brilliant technique—but increasingly injury-prone body—to Al-Jazira (€€€€€€€). At his best, he could still dictate the terms for his Real Betis, but lately, he had become more of a burden. Now, other players have a chance to step up and shine.
Pablo Fornals, for example. He recorded 3 goals and 2 assists last year, despite barely reaching over 1,000 minutes of playing time. He hasn't registered any points so far this season, but that's probably just a matter of time. He's had at least one shot in every game and has made seven key passes over three matches. He's also the player who has mainly taken over responsibility for set pieces.
Odds of 3.25 feel interesting.
Two teams that know each other down to the smallest detail. They have met 25 times over the past seven years, with results of 8–8–9. Olimpia Asuncion has been almost flawless defensively. Extremely well-organized and capable of defending both high and deep. Last time they visited here (April 22), they were 2.00 favorites. A match that was heading for a 0–0 finish, but they managed to decide it in the 91st minute. They are forced to make changes in the starting lineup. César Olmedo (suspended) is replaced by Carlos Espinola, and Hugo Benitez (also suspended) is replaced by Derlis Alberto Gonzalez. They are the better team, but they also know this is one of the tougher matches of the season and wouldn’t mind leaving with a point in the bag and their unbeaten streak intact.
Flamengo thrives against Bahia (10–1–1 over the past seven years of meetings) – but I still think the odds are way too low. They don’t actually need to win. They have a 1-0 lead to lean on. They also have absences of Nicolás De La Cruz, Everton Cebolinha, Matias Viña, Pedro, Michael, and Carlinhos. It's difficult to figure out the starting eleven. Will it be Varela or Wesley in the defense? It's not certain if Pulgar can play... Who replaces him then, Araujo or Allan?
Bahia, on the other hand, was the better team last time. They had 17 shots and four big scoring chances. They recently visited here in Serie A, and they left with a 1–2 loss, but it was a match that was evenly balanced in terms of chances. Will they defy the heavy wings of history and cause a big cup upset?
My first thought is – if Atletico MG can win at Morumbi, why wouldn’t Sao Paulo be able to win at Arena MRV? The teams met here in the league just a couple of months ago. "Alvinegro" came out on top, winning 2–1, despite being at a disadvantage in terms of chances – and having to play the last half hour with one man more. They were set as 2.60 favorites then. Now they are instead pushed down to 2.20, even though they don’t even need to win to advance. Any logic there? Not really, right? Zaracho and Alisson are still out with their injuries. But Milito has more or less all his key players ready, which most likely means the following starting eleven: Everson; Saravia, Battaglia, Alonso; Scarpa, Alan Franco, Otávio, Arana; Bernard, Paulinho, Hulk.
Sao Paulo can only show a "decent" away record in Serie A (the league), but if we go into detail – the numbers are misleading. In terms of underlying statistics, only one other team has played better football on the road (Internacional), if we look at goal chances (for and against).
Overall, there will be three singles for me, and it is enough for at least one of them to hit for it to be "break-even" at worst.
If Fortaleza wins tonight, they will move to the top of the table. That would be a big surprise, as they certainly haven’t looked like "leaders" this season. I've lost count of how many lucky points they've managed to scrape together. But—at the same time... They are sailing with the wind in their favor, and it might be a bit too risky to start going against them.
I think there’s a reason to look into other markets.
In several of the Fortaleza matches I've seen this season, Lucas Sasha has committed a lot of fouls (the most in the entire team) and made several tackles. Yet, he is only recorded with just two yellow cards. He’s had the privilege of being officiated by lenient referees many times. But that’s not the case tonight. Gustavo Ervino Bauermann will have the whistle, and he doesn’t usually look the other way... Averaging 5.25 yellow cards per match.
Another factor I consider is that this is a catch-up game for Fortaleza. In just 48 hours, they have to play again, and there is planned rotation. Some of the players might handle this on their own. Seven players are on the brink of suspension (missing the next match if they get a yellow card tonight), including Lucas Sasha. He’s probably one of the players who was planned to rest against Athletico PR. So maybe it's best to just get the suspension over with?
Finland wasn’t as bad as the 0–3 scoreline against Greece suggests... They held their own well in the first half, but individual mistakes tripped them up, and by the second half, they had run out of steam. An already struggling squad has now also been hit with new injuries. It’s not a good sign ahead of tonight’s tricky challenge.
Lee Carsley has quickly become popular as England’s interim manager (the odds of him taking over permanently have dropped significantly). Gareth Southgate came close to achieving great success with England, but didn’t quite get there. At times, his approach was a bit too one-dimensional, lacking a "Plan B." It was as if the handbrake was on too tight.
Carsley, on the other hand, sent out an attacking, dynamic starting XI in the last match – not even giving Ireland a chance to breathe.
Since then, Harry Kane has been training in gold boots, preparing for what will be a celebrated milestone tonight: his 100th international cap, making him the 10th English player in history to reach that mark. It almost feels written in the stars that the Bayern Munich striker will find the back of the net tonight, doesn’t it?
Greece has flown under the radar lately, but the fact is they’ve been incredibly good since the start of 2023. When they’ve lost, it’s only been against top-tier opponents. They should probably be seen as a more clear favorite tonight, especially against a team they’ve already beaten twice during the Euro qualifiers.
